针对三峡及金沙江下游梯级水库群汛后竞争性蓄水矛盾，以溪洛渡、向家坝、三峡、葛洲坝梯级四库系统为研究对象，采用不同来水年型、蓄水时间和起调水位构建蓄水情景集；以蓄水期期望发电量最大为目标，建立蓄水期多目标联合随机优化调度模型，生成各蓄水情景下的最优蓄水方案；基于蓄满率、梯级期望弃水量、梯级平均期望出力对各方案进行评价，推荐丰水年溪洛渡、向家坝9月11日起蓄、三峡9月10日起蓄，平水年溪洛渡、向家坝9月11日起蓄、三峡9月1日起蓄，枯水年溪洛渡、向家坝9月1日起蓄、三峡8月21日起蓄。

Aiming at the competitively impounding contradiction of Three Gorges-Jinsha River lower reach cascade reservoirs in flood recession period, taking Xiluodu, Xiangjiaba, Three Gorges, Gezhouba cascade reservoir group system as research object, scenario sets were established with different hydrological year types, beginning impounding times and beginning water levels; taking maximum expected generated energy as target, multi objective stochastic optimal joint operation model was built for water impounding period, and optimal scheme of each impoundment scenario was generated; considering the flood risk and the benefit, on the basis of fill storage rate, cascade expected surplus water and cascade expected power output, Xiluodu reservoir and Xiangjiaba reservoir were recommended to begin impounding on September 11, Three Gorges reservoir on September 10 in high flow years, Xiluodu reservoir and Xiangjiaba reservoir were recommended to begin impounding on September 11, Three Gorges reservoir on September 1 in mean flow years, Xiluodu reservoir and Xiangjiaba reservoir were recommended to begin impounding on September 1, Three Gorges reservoir on August 21 in low flow years,.

国家自然科学基金(51179044)（51579068）；国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划项目）(2013CB036406)