根据尾矿库溃坝特征，引入泥流水力计算对尾矿库溃坝事故进行计算模拟，并将模拟结果与GIS工具耦合，从空间层面对溃坝事故进程和产生的影响进行动态预测和展示，从而建立尾矿库溃坝事故预警体系，为事故应急工作提供指导。文章以南水北调中线水源地支流老灌河流域为例，选取流域上下游两个典型尾矿库进行溃坝事故情景模拟，得出上游尾矿库溃坝事故影响范围55 km，对该尾矿库下游3～5 km处居民区有严重危害，事故影响时间约6～7 h；下游尾矿库溃坝事故影响范围13 km，主要破坏该尾矿库周边农业资源，事故影响时间约2 h。模拟结果在验证本研究实用性的同时，为该流域尾矿库溃坝事故预警应急措施和流域日常安全管理提供决策支持。

This article was aimed to establish an early warning system of tailings dam-break accidents, and provide guidance for emergency operation. The model of sand flow from tailings dam-break was used to simulate accident scenarios based on the characteristic of tailings dam-break. Combining simulation results with GIS tools, the process and impact of accidents were predicted and displayed spatially. The article used Laoguan River Basin, a tributary of the middle route of South to North Water Transfers, as a study case, and chose two typical tailing ponds from upstream and downstream to simulate accident scenario. The scale of the accident impact from upstream was 55 km, and the residential land in 3-5 km downstream of the tailing pond would be subjected to serious harm. The duration of accident impact was about 6-7 hours. The scale of the accident impact from downstream was 13 km, and the agricultural resources from downstream would be subjected to main harm. The duration of accident impact was about 2 hours. The simulation results have verified the practicability of the research and provided decision supports for emergency measures of tailings dam-break and daily safety management in this basin.

国家自然科学基金项目(41101473；41271514)