针对新疆自治区阜康市水资源日益短缺及生态环境逐渐恶化的现实情况，根据 DPSIR框架展开水资源承载力因子分析，构建了水资源承载力多因素基础指标体系；应用主成分分析法筛选出主要指标，采用熵权法进行赋权；构建综合评价模型对水资源承载力进行计算。研究表明：筛选出的4个主成分累计贡献率为92.016%，能充分代表多因素基础指标体系；阜康市九年间（2006年－2014）水资源承载力综合评分值在0.498～0.531之间波动，下降速率缓慢且波动幅度减小，整体上处于开发饱和阶段。社会和经济发展的压力带来的农业用水的增加是导致水资源承载力下降的主要指标，扩大地下水开采和推行的节水灌溉等压采措施则在很大程度上缓解了下降的趋势。

Fukang city in Xinjiang province is faced with increasing scarcity of water resources and worsening ecology. Based on DPSIR, we conducted factor analysis of water resources carrying capacity (WRRC) and built a basic indicator system. Principal component analysis was used to select the main indicators of WRRC and entropy weight analysis was used to determine their weights. A comprehensive evaluation model was built to calculate and evaluate the WRRC of Fukang. The results showed that the selected 4 main indicators can well represent the basic indicator system with an accumulative contribution rate of 92.016%. The WRRC of Fukang fluctuated between 0.498-0.531 during 2006-2014. The rate of decline was slow and the fluctuation range decreased with time. Generally, the utilization has reached saturation. The increased use of agricultural water resulting from social and economic development was a main indicator of the decline in WRRC. But the trend of decline was strongly relieved by the expanding groundwater exploitation and water resources management practices in Fukang.

水利部行政事业性项目（ 1261521610010）