华北平原地下水严重超采，并带来一系列资源环境问题，地下水资源承载力的可持续性面临严重挑战。本研究定义了地下水资源承载力的概念，提出了一种定量评价地下水承载力的新方法，并对华北平原地下水承载力进行了评价。结果表明，华北平原地区地下水资源支撑的GDP从2003年的15608.18亿元迅速提高到2011年的37584.9 亿元，33.3%的地市位于未超采未超载区；华北平原整体及57.2%的地市均位于超采未超载区，已发生地下水超采，但通过提高用水效率，未来社会经济规模仍有发展空间；9.5%的地市位于超采超载区。最后探讨地下水资源的承载力的提高途径，主要包括增加地下水资源可利用量和提高用水效率两方面，其中提高用水效率效果更显著。

Groundwater is over-exploited in North China Plain, and this brings a series of eco-environmental problems. The sustainability of groundwater carrying capacity in NCP is faced with an unprecedented challenge. The definition of groundwater carrying capacity was put forward in this study and a new evaluation method for groundwater carrying capacity was proposed. The cities were grouped into three regions, i.e. the non-over-exploited and non-overloaded region (NN), the over-exploited but non-overloaded region (ON), and the over-exploited and overloaded region (OO). The results showed that the GDP supported by groundwater was 1560.8 billion RMB in 2003, and it quickly increased to 3758.5 billion RMB in 2011. 33.3% of the cities belong to the NN region. NCP as a whole and 57.2% of the cities belong to the ON region, where groundwater has been over-exploited, but the water use efficiency is relatively low, so there is still room for social and economic development if the water use efficiency is enhanced. 9.5% of the cities belong to the OO region. In the end, we discussed the approaches to enhancing the groundwater carrying capacity, including increasing the available groundwater quantity and enhancing the water use efficiency.

973项目（2010CB428805）；水环所基本科研业务项目（SK201306）；国土资源部公益性行业科研专项（201211079）