研究历史旱涝变化规律对于区域综合防灾减灾具有重要的现实意义。本文以海河流域的旱涝灾害文献记录和旱涝等级资料为基础，重建过去500年区域综合旱涝指数序列，探讨海河流域1470-2000年旱涝变化的规律。研究发现海河流域旱涝灾害的频发期具有明显的时段性，呈现出“旱-涝-旱”波动。从16世纪初期开始由洪涝转向干旱，并于17世纪初期达到顶点；从17世纪中后期开始海河再次进入相对易受洪涝灾害影响的时期，其中19世纪初期处在最低值，到20世纪20年代左右，流域再次进入相对干旱的时期，且干旱的严重程度逐年增加。同时，研究区存在2.5年、9.8年、18.6年、31.3年、83.5年、125.3年和167.0年等旱涝周期性过程。

Study the variation of historical drought and flood has important practical significance for regional comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigation. In this paper, we use the drought and flood records reconstructed the comprehensive index series of regional drought and flood over the past 500 years, and analyed of the variation of flood and drought in Haihe River Basin of 1470-2000. The study found that the drought and flood disasters in Haihe River Basin has obvious fluctuation, showed the periodic phenomenon of “dry - wet - dry”. In 16th Century, the drought disaster became more and more frequent, and reached the peak at the beginning of 17th Century. From last part of 17th to 19th Century, the Haihe River Basin once again moved into the relatively wet period. On 1920s, Haihe river basin moved into dry period, and the disaster intensity increased year by year. At the same time, the Haihe River Basin has obvious periodic process of drought and flood, which is 2.5A, 9.8a, 18.6a, 31.3a, 83.5a, 125.3a and 167.0a, respectively.

国家社科基金重大项目（14ZDB151）