[关键词]
[摘要]
干旱灾害频发严重制约着四川省的农业发展,为合理分析四川省干旱情况,干旱指数的选择尤为重要。本文基于四川省39个气象站点1960年-2013年的气象资料,分别计算1961年、1994年、2006年和2009年-2010年各站点相对湿润指数M、气象干旱综合指数CI、标准化降水指数SPI和标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI,利用Arcgis反距离插值法进行空间插值,并与中国气象灾害大典记录的四川省典型年干旱情况进行对比分析,进而评价四种干旱指数在四川省的适用性。结果表明:对于1961年夏旱,M指数和CI指数均表现出无旱或轻旱,SPI指数结果较实际情况偏小,SPEI指数监测出了干旱的重灾区,效果在四个干旱指标中最好;1994年夏伏旱,M指数监测结果偏小;CI指数出现了空报,对川东地区和川西高原的监测结果偏小,SPEI指数在达县、巴中一带结果偏小,而SPI指数在成都、绵阳一带的结果偏小。2006年伏旱,M指数监测结果偏小;CI指数比M指数效果稍好,但结果仍然偏小;SPI指数和SPEI指数监测出的干旱特征与实际一致;2009年-2010年的冬春连旱,SPEI指数效果最好,M指数次之,SPI指数效果最差。SPEI指数最能反映四川省典型干旱年干旱的空间分布特征。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
Drought disaster was frequently occurred, which seriously restricted agricultural development of Sichuan Province. Selecting of drought index is very important in order to reasonably analyze drought situation of Sichuan Province. Based on daily meteorological data from 1960 to 2013 of 39 meteorological stations of Sichuan Province, Relative Humidity Index, Composite Index of Meteorological Drought , Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation- Evapotranspiration Index were calculated in 1961, 1994, 2006 and 2009~2010. Inverse distance interpolation of Arcgis was used, and spatial distribution was obtained. Application of four drought indexes in Sichuan Province were evaluated which were compared with records of drought disaster in China’s weather disaster. Results showed that: for summer drought in 1961, the moisture index M and comprehensive drought index CI showed no or slight drought,SPI index monitored results were smaller than the actual situation and SPEI index showed the hardest hit which is the best index for monitoring the drought. For the summer drought in summer, M index monitoring results showed smaller, CI index showed vacancy and were smaller in Eastern Sichuan and Western Sichuan, SPEI index showed smaller in Bazhong and Daxian, and SPI index in Chengdu and Mianyang area; For drought in 2006, M index monitoring results weresmall, and CI index werea little better which werestill smaller than actual situation, the monitoring results of SPI and SPEIwereaccordance with actual situation; For the 2009 to 2010 winter and spring drought, SPEI was the best index, M index followed and SPI index was the worst. In a word, SPEI was the best drought index reflecting the spatial distribution of drought in Sichuan Province.
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[基金项目]
国家自然科学基金(41271045);国家重点基础研究发展计划资助项目(2013CB036401);四川水利职业技术学院院级科研项目(KY2006-09;KY2006-20)