南水北调东线工程山东段由新修渠道、原有河道及湖泊、水库共同构成。输水干线多为开敞式且与当地交通道路交叉，南四湖和梁济运河承担航运任务，交通、航运等突发事故有可能影响正常输水，因而输水安全受到多种潜在突发事故的威胁。为能够在突发事故发生后采取有效的应急控制和处置措施，降低事故造成的损失，采用核对表法对工程突发风险源进行识别，确定突发事故类型，综合利用模糊意见集中决策和层次分析法建立风险评估体系，对南水北调东线工程山东段的突发事故风险进行评估，确定各类突发事故对工程的影响程度,经评定该工程的主要风险包括陆运和航运交通事故引发的突发风险，次要风险主要包括人为投毒、自然灾害及机器故障等原因引发的各类突发风险。该成果可为后续应急控制和处置方案的制定提供决策依据，同时可为其他资料短缺地区的风险评估提供参考。

The Shandong section of South-to-North Water Transfer Project consists of new water trunk canals, the original rivers, lakes, reservoirs. Almost water transferring line are openly and crossing with roads, Nansihu and liangji canal undertakes shipping missions, traffic accident or shipping accident and many other emergences may effects on the normal work, as a result many potential accidents effects the normal water delivery and construction safety. To be able to take effective emergency control and disposal measures after the accident happens and reduce the losses caused by the emergency, using the checklist method to identify sources of sudden risk, establishing risk assessment system with Fuzzy Suggestion Centralized Decision and Analytic Hierarchy Process to assess the sudden risk in Shandong section of South-to-North water transferred project. The main risks in this project include some sudden risks result from land transportation and shipping, the minor risks include many sudden risks result from human poisoning and natural disasters and machine fault and so on. The risk assessment system provide decision-making basis for emergency control and disposal programs, and provide reference for the risk assessment in the poorly gauged regions.

“十二五”国家科技支撑项目（2015BAB07B02）；山东省水利厅、山东省重大水利科研与技术推广专项资助项目（SDSLKY201501；SDSLKY201222）