了解气候变化影响下的地下水潜在补给变化对于地下水资源的科学管理与评价是非常必要的。本文以栾城生态试验站为典型研究区，联合应用ClimGen天气发生器和地下水补给Visual HELP模型，对未来气候变化情景下的地下水潜在补给速率进行了评估。结果显示：在降水减少10%(P)、温度上升2℃(T)以及两者同时发生（P&T）三种情景下，未来（2011年－2040年）地下水多年平均补给速率相比基准（1961年－1990年）分别下降了23.33%、4.42%、26.01%，其中降水的减少对地下水入渗补给的影响尤为明显。该项研究对于指导地下水资源的科学管理与可持续开发利用具有重要意义。

Understanding the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge is considerably vital for the scientific management and evaluation of groundwater resources. This study coupled application of climate generator (ClimGen) with groundwater recharge model (HELP) to assess the groundwater recharge change under 3 assumed future climate scenarios (precipitation decrease 10%, T as temperature increased 2℃, and P&T) in Luancheng Agro-Ecosystem Experimental Station. The results indicated that the furture (2011~2040 yr) mean annual recharge rates in these three scenarios have been decreased by 23.33%, 4.42% and 26.01% respectively compared to the basis (1961~1990 yr), which suggested that the change of potential recharge is dominated by the variation of precipitation. This study was significant for the groundwater resources management and sustainable exploitation in North China Plain.

国家自然科学基金 (41272252)