[关键词]
[摘要]
径流演变特征研究可为在变化环境下制定流域水资源规划、建立流域水文响应机制提供科学依据。以沙颍河流域代表水文站阜阳站为例,运用M-K检验法和小波分析法分析了1956-2011年径流变化特征,并从气候变化及人类活动的角度分析了径流变化的主要驱动因素。结果表明:沙颍河阜阳站径流总体呈下降趋势,但下降趋势不明显,总体未达到95%显著性水平;在1966年前后存在明显的突变点;径流存在13年、26年两类周期变化特性,周期演变过程受人类活动影响显著。就驱动因素而言,人类活动对径流变化的贡献率在65%以上,气候变化对径流变化的影响较弱,表现为从负向到正向的趋势。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
The study on the characteristics of runoff evolution can provide a scientific basis for the development of water resources plans and establishment of hydrological response mechanisms. In this study, the runoff evolution characteristics of Fuyang station were analyzed using M-K test and wavelet analysis based on the discharge data of Fuyang hydrometric station from 1956 to 2011, and the main factors influencing the runoff changes were analyzed from the perspective of climate change and human activities. The results showed that the runoff of Fuyang station of Shayinghe River decreased but the decreasing trend was not significant, not reaching the 95% significance level. An abrupt change occurred around 1966. There was a 13-year periodic variation and a 26-year periodic variation of the runoff, and the periodic evolution process was affected by human activities significantly. As for the driving factors, the contribution rate of human activities to runoff changes was more than 65%. The impact of climate change on runoff changes was relatively weak, and tended to turn from negative to positive.
[中图分类号]
[基金项目]
国家自然科学基金(51279183;51509222)、郑州大学重大科技项目培育基金(2015ZDPY01)