受气候变化和人类活动的影响, 济南市三川流域( 锦绣川、锦阳川、锦云川) 降雨-径流关系发生显著变化, 影响到济南市城市供水和保泉工程有效实施。利用 1964- 2011 年近 50 年系列资料, 采用滑动偏相关系数等方法, 探讨三川流域降雨-径流关系变化规律, 分析引起变化的内在机制与驱动因素。结果显示: 受气候变化的影响, 三川流域降水具 有显著增加趋势; 受水土保持、社会经济取用水等人类活动的影响, 三川流域径流具有不显著的减少趋势。流域降雨径流关系的突变点发生在 1988 年前后, 通过 1988- 2011 年与 1964- 1987 年系列对比分析, 流域平均降水量增 加 12. 57% 、入库径流减少 8. 85% 。结合实地调查和水利普查数据分析, 在三川流域降雨-径流关系变化中人类活动( 蓄供水工程修建和水土保持措施实施等) 占主导地位。气候变化对径流影响为正效应, 人类活动为负效应。

The rainfall-runoff relat ionship in Sanchuan watershed has changed significantly due to the climate change and intensive human activities. The variation of rainfall-runoff relationship threatens the urban water supply and spring protection work in Jinan city. In this paper, we investigated the variationpat terns and analyzed the internal mechanism and driving factors that caused the variation of rainfall-runoff relationship in the past fifty years ( 1964-2011) . The Mann-Kendall test , cumulative anomraly, and sliding partial correlation coefficient methods were used for characteristics analysis. The analysis results indicated that the rainfall increased significantly due to the climate change. However, the runoff decreased insignificantly in the pastfifty years due to human activities such as soil and water conservation and water consumption for social and economic purposes. The change-point of rainfall-runoff relationship occurred in 1988. The annual rainfall in 1988-2011 increased by 12. 57% and the annual runoff decreased by 8. 85% as compared to those prior to the change-point ( in 1964-1987) . The human activities including water storage and supply projects and soil and water conservation practices were the mainfactors impacting the rainfall-runoff relationship in Sanchuan watershed. The analysis demonstrated that the climate change and human activities had opposite effects on the rainfall-runoff relationship in Sanchuan watershed.

国家自然科学基金( 41330529; 41271048) ; 济南市城乡水务局项目( 济水发[ 2013] 378 号)