为定量评价安徽省水资源承载力的整体状况和发展趋势、识别引起水资源承载力不安全的主要因素, 采用“评价-诊断-调控-再评价”的研究思路, 构建了基于联系数的区域水资源承载力诊断评价模型, 对安徽省水资源承载力进行了动态诊断评价研究, 并利用减法集对势识别水资源承载力的脆弱性指标。结果表明: 安徽省 2005- 2015 年的水资源承载力综合评价等级值均处于 2 级临界超载附近, 虽存在缓慢改善的趋势、但承载状况不理想; 将诊断识别出引起水资源承载状况不安全的主要指标进行调控后, 再次对水资源承载力的总体安全状况进行综合评价, 调控后再评价的承载状况结果得到明显改善; 上述所采用的诊断评价方法及研究思路可为安徽省水资源合理配置与调控提供技术支持。

In order to quantitatively evaluate the over all status and the development trend of the water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province and diagnose the key indexes which made the system vulnerable, we used connection number method to establish an evaluation model for the water resources carrying capacity of Anhui Province, and used the set pair subtractive situation to identify vulnerable indexes. In this study we proposed a new resear chidea. First, we evaluated the over all status of the water resources carrying capacity . Second, we identified vulnerable indexes based on the evaluation results. Then we regulated the vulnerable indexes. At last, we re-evaluated the water resources carrying capacity . The results showed that the comprehensive evaluation grade of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province from 2005 to 2015 was near Grade 2 overload. Despite the tendency of slow improvement, the carrying capacity was not satisfactory. After the vulnerable indexes were regulated, the evaluation results improved significantly . The evaluation and diagnostic methods and research ideas used in this paper can provide technical support for the rational allocation and regulation of water resources in Anhui Province.

国家重点研发计划( 2016YFC0401305; 2016YFC0401303) ; 国家自然科学基金( 51579059; 51479045)