我国中小河流域防洪标准普遍偏低, 急需加强洪水预报工作, 特别是在站点稀少, 资料匮乏的高寒山区, 由融雪产生的径流与由降水产生的径流难以区分, 加大了洪水预报工作难度。SRM 融雪径流模型是专门解决这个问题的水文模型, 它对于山区流域融雪径流预报和模拟研究起着非常重要的作用。基于 SRM 融雪径流模型, 以新疆地区典型山区中小河流域奎屯河为例, 通过 MODIS 遥感数据提取流域积雪覆盖率, 并结合气象台站数据, 对研究区进行水文模拟, 研究结果认为: 融雪径流模型能够很好的模拟奎屯河流域的径流过程, 率定期与验证期 Nash 效率 系数都达到了 0.7 以上, 说明融雪径流模型能够适用于奎屯河流域的洪水预报, 对高寒山区中小河流域防洪预警具有一定的指导意义。

The medium and small riv ers in China generally have low flood contro lstandards and urgent lyneed st rengthened flood forecasting , especially in high-cold mountaino us areas with insufficient stations and data, where it is difficult to disting uish the runoff produced by snowmelt from that by precipitation, which enhances the difficulty of flood for ecasting . Snowmelt Runoff Model ( SRM ) is a hydro logical model fo rsimulating and forecasting the snow melt runoff in mountainous watersheds. It plays an important role in the study of mountainous watersheds with snow melt and precipitation as the main runoff sources. Based on SRM and taking Kuitun River as a typical case of medium and small rivers in high-cold mountainous areas of Xinjiang , we simulated the daily runoff of the catchment by extracting the snow cover rate through MODIS remote sensing data and collecting meteorological data. The results showed that the snowmelt runoff model could well simulate the runoff process of Kuitun River catchment , and its Nash efficiency coefficients in both calibration and validation perio dsexceeded 07, which means that the snowmelt runoff model can be applied to flood fo recasting in Kuitun River. The model has some guiding significance for the flood prevention and early warning in medium and small river catchments of high-cold mountainous areas.

国家自然科学基金项目( 51339004; 51279139)