针对南水北调东线山东段区域的防汛需求, 主要从洪水灾害的危险性、敏感性和易损性 3 方面建立洪水灾害风险区划模型, 综合考虑研究区域的汛期暴雨日数、暴雨强度、高程、高程标准差、河网密度、湖区缓冲区、GDP、人口密度、土地利用类型等 9 项影响指标, 用蒙特卡罗法辅助层次分析法分析确定指标权重值, 通过 A rcGIS 的地图代数功能对各个指标图层归一化处理, 计算得到研究区域的洪水灾害风险区划图。区划结果显示: 鲁南片的高风险区位于南四湖周边区域、枣庄市局部地区; 鲁北片的高风险区位于聊城城区、黄河以北沿线; 胶东片的高风险区位于济南市周边以及半岛东部局部地区。通过与历史洪涝灾情资料进行比对, 发现上述区划结果符合灾害发生的实际情况,区划结果对南水北调东线山东段洪水防治和决策管理具有重要的参考价值。

In view of the flood control demand of the East Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project in Shandong area, the flood risk zoning model was established based on the fundamental principles of hazard, sensitivity and vulnerability of flood disasters. Nine influencing indices such as rainstorm days in the flood season, rainstorm intensity , elevation, standard deviation of elevation, river network density, and buffer zone of lakes, gross domestic product, population density, and land use type were comprehensively considered. The weights of indices were determined by means of the analytic hierarchy process ( AHP) with the auxiliary of Monte Carlo method. The cartographic algebra function in ArcGIS was adopted to perform the normalization processing of the various indicator layers. After calculating and mapping process, the risk zoning map of flood disasters of the study area was obtained. The results showed that the high2risk areas of south, north and east Shandong were located in the surrounding regions of Nansi Lake and so me local areas in Zaozhuang City, L iao cheng City and the north side o f the Yellow River, the vicinity of Jinan City and part of regions of the east peninsula. Compared with the historical data o f flood disaster s, the above zoning results proved t o accord with the actual situation of the study area, which show ed that the results have important referencing values for flood prevention and decision management in Shandong section of the East Route of South-to-NorthWater Transfer Project.

国家科技支撑计划课题( 2015BAB07B00) ; 山东省自然科学基金( ZR2017MEE006)