大气环流模式(GCMs)是定量评估气候变化及其影响效应的有效工具, GCMs的优选是使用该工具时不可缺少的重要环节。将TOPSIS 综合评价法引入到GCMs的优选中, 并结合熵权的概念对各项评价指标进行赋权, 采用加权TOPSIS综合评价法对CMIP5中18个GCMs对黑河流域上游降水模拟方面的适用性进行评价; 并通过传统Rank Score (RS) 方法和降水预估精度两方面对该方法的结果进行验证。结果表明, 对研究区1960-2005年降水模拟效果最好的是CSIRO-Mk3.6.0模式, 模拟效果最差的是BNU2ESM模式;1960-2005年模拟性能优良和模拟性能较差的GCMs排序与传统RS方法得到的结果基本一致, 与2006-2015年GCMs的排序也基本一致, 这说明基于加权TOPSIS综合评价法对GCMs进行优选的结论具有很强的可靠性。因此该方法适用于多方案、多目标的GCMs优选, 并由于其计算简单、计算过程中没有信息损失等优势而具有广阔的应用前景。
The Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method is widely used in resolving the multi-objective and multi-indicator decision making problems in published literature. In this study ,TOPSIS was applied to evaluate the performance of precipitation simulations obtained from 18 General Circulation Models (GCMs) over the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin. Firstly, six indicators, such as mean value, normalized root mean square error, coefficient of variation, Mann-Kenda ll trend analysis statistic value, coefficient of inhomogeneity and Pearson correlation coefficient were used in the evaluation process. Secondly, the weight of each indicator was determined by using the entropy approach, and finally GCMs were ranked based on the entropy weighted TOPSIS method. The result showed that CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 ranked 1st, and therefore was selected as the best alternative selection in precipitation simulation during the period of 1960-2005 over the study area. BNU-ESM ranked the last and was the worst alt ernative selection. The result was quitecomparable with the traditional method of the rank score. Compared with the observations during the period of 2006 to 2015, CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 model also performed the best and BNU-ESM performed the worst in predicting the precipitation for the same period. Thus, it was concluded that the TOPSIS method could be applied in the similar studies since it has arigorous theoretical basis, no requirement for data sample size, no loss of information in the calculation process, and easy to calculate.