[关键词]
[摘要]
为了解在全球变暖的背景下海河流域对气候极端事件的响应, 基于海河流域 1961- 2016 年气温与降水数据, 使用 RClimDex 模型、MK 趋势检验、Max2Stable 模型对海河流域气候极值进行建模分析, 研究海河流域气温极值、 降水极值不同重现期的时空分布、变化特征。结果表明: 海河流域温度极值 TXx 在空间上表现出从北向南递减趋 势, 值域为 30~ 40 e , 其中 36~ 40 e 占大部分地区。TXx 在南方呈降低趋势, 北方呈上升趋势。降水极值 RX1day 空间上表现出从东南向西北方向递减的趋势, 值域为 50~ 100 mm, 其中 60~ 90 mm 占据绝大部分区域。 RX1day 整体呈下降趋势, 其中渤海地区 RX1day 下降趋势最大。海河流域 GEV 模型拟合结果表明, 海河流域气温 极值主要受纬度、海拔影响, 随纬度、海拔增加而降低, 其变化波动为北方强于南方。降水极值 RX1day 受海拔和经 度影响较大, 主要表现为随海拔增大而下降的空间分布, 其次表现为随经度变化由西向东递增的空间分布, 其变化 波动随海拔升高而降低。通过 Q2Q 百分位图、非参数极值系数 H、GEV 与 Max2Stable 参数和重现期强度散点图判 定系数 R2 , 确定 Max2Stable 模型可以很好地模拟海河流域气候极值, 达到 GEV 模型同等效果。气候极值 TXx 与 RX1day 主要受到纬度、经度和海拔的影响, 但距海岸距离的加入仅可以优化 TXx 模型的建立。2 年、10 年、50 年、 100 年一遇气温极值 T Xx 的空间分布均表现为自东北向西南递增的分布模式, 高值区均分布于西南大部一带, 最 高温度达 40~ 44 e 。2 年、10 年、50 年、100 年一遇降水极值 T X1day 的空间分布主要受纬度影响, 其次受经度和 海拔的影响, 均表现为从西南偏中向北方递减, 高值区分布在西南偏中一带, 最大降水量达 80~ 200 mm。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
In or der t o understand the r esponse of H aihe Riv er Basin ( H RB) to ex tr eme climate events in the context of global warming, climate va riables ( t emperatur e and precipit ation) fr om 1961 to 2016 wer e used. The RClimDex model, M2K tr end test and Max2St able model, and the climate ext remes of H RB w as modeled and analyzed. The spatial and tempor al distribut ion and variatio n char acteristics of temper ature and pr ecipitation extr emes in HRB wer e studied. T he results showed that TXx displayed a decreasing t rend fr om north t o south with a r ang e of 30240 e , of w hich 36240 e account ed for most areas in the H RB. T Xx ex hibited a decreasing trend in the south and increasing t rend in the north. T he pr ecipitatio n extr eme value RX1day show ed a decreasing t rend fr om southeast to northw est with a r ange of 502100 mm of w hich 60290 mm occupied most ar eas. The o verall RX1day show ed a downw ard tr end amo ng which the Circum2Bohai Sea Reg io n had the lar gest downwar d tr end. The GEV model fitting results showed that the t em perat ur e ex tr emes w ere mainly affected by latitude and elevat ion, and decr eased w ith the in2 cr ease of latit ude and elevat ion and the variatio n fluctuation was st rong er in the no rth compa red south in the H RB. The ex tr eme value of pr ecipit ation RX1da y w as gr eat ly affected by the altit ude and lo ng itude, w hich w as mainly represented by the spatial distribut ion that decr eased w ith the increase o f altitude, followed by the spat ial distributio n that incr eased fr om w est to east with the chang e of long itude. Based o n the Q2Q per centile g raph, no n2parametric ex tr eme value co efficient H, GEV and Max2Stable par ameters, and the determinat ion co ef ficient R2 of the intensity scatt er plot for the r ecurrence perio d, it w as determined that the Max2Stable mo del co uld well simulate the climate extr emes in t he H RB and GEV had the same effect. Climate ex tremes T Xx and RX1day wer e mainly affected by latitude, lo ng itude, and altitude, but the additio n of distance from the co ast could only o pt i2 mized the establishment of the TXx model. The spatial distribution of temper ature ex tremes TXx once in 2 years, 10 y ears, 50 years, and 100 y ea rs showed an incr easing dist ributio n pattern fr om nort heast to southw est, and the high2v alue areas w ere dis2 tributed in most o f the so uthw est, w ith the hig hest temper atur e r eaching 40244 e . The spatial distributio n of extr eme ra infall values TX1day once in 2 y ears, 10 y ears, 50 years, and 100 years w as mainly affected by latitude, fo llow ed by lo ng itude and alt i2 tude. All of them showed a decr ease from the southwest to the no rth, and the high value areas w ere distribut ed in the south2 w est. Cent rally, the maximum precipitat ion w as 802200 mm.
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[基金项目]
国家重点研发计划( 2018YFC1508101) ; 国家自然科学基金( 41701034)