为建立适用于烟台市半湿润地区的水文模型, 考虑流域水文特征及下垫面条件的影响, 采用新安江-海河模型 对 2011- 2018 年烟台5 个典型流域进行径流模拟。2014 年起烟台连续 3 年干旱, 河道干涸, 径流量与2014 年前相 比大幅减少。考虑到干旱的影响, 采用 Mann-Kendal 检验法对年径流序列进行突变检验,确定 2014 年为年径流突变点, 将模拟序列分为 2 个时间段。结果表明: 径流过程分段模拟之后, 新安江-海河模型在烟台市典型流域的径流模拟精度较高, 参数取值较为合理, 模型能够反映实际的产汇流情况, 有较好的适用性。

To establish a hydrological model suitable for the sub-humid area of Yantai city, the Xincanjiang-Haihe model was used to simulate the runoff in the five typical basins in Yantai city from 2011 to 2018. Since 2014, Yantai city has been dry for three consecutive years, the river has dried up, and the runoff has decreased significantly compared with that before 2014. Considering the influence of drought , the Mann-Kendal test is used to test the abrupt change of annual runoff sequence, and 2014 is determined as the abrupt change point of annual runoff. The simulation sequence is divided into two time periods and is simulated in segments. T he results sho wed that: after subsection simulation o f the runoff process, the runoff simulation accuracy of the X inc anjiang-Haihe model in the typical basin of Yantai city is higher, and the parameters are more reasonable. The Xin’anjiang-Haihe model can reflect the actual production confluence and has good applicability.

国家重点研发计划( 2018YFC1508103) ; 国家自然科学基金( 51979070; 51679061)