[关键词]
[摘要]
基于多区域LMDI方法和信息熵原理,研究2005-2018年广东省4大区域21个城市生产用水结构时空演化机制,解构人口规模、人口分布、经济发展、产业结构和用水强度等5个驱动因素对广东省生产用水的影响。结果表明:广东省生产用水总量总体上呈现降低趋势,珠三角地区降低幅度明显,三大产业的用水强度都逐年下降,区域间差别显著;三大产业用水占比基本保持稳定,珠三角地区用水结构较为均衡,粤东西北地区用水结构趋向于单一,以第一产业用水为主;经济发展为主导正向驱动力,用水强度为第一负向驱动力,产业结构为第二负向驱动力且其驱动效应逐年下降,人口规模为正向驱动力但效应较不明显,人口分布驱动效应最不明显,但人口分布在珠三角城市中主要表现为正向驱动力,在粤东西北地区则呈现为负向驱动力。该研究结果对协调区域产业发展和水资源的关系,制定合理的水资源规划具有一定的参考价值。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
Multi-regional LMDI decomposition model and Information entropy were adopted to analyze spatiotemporal variations of the productive water consumption structure in 21 cities in 4 regions of Guangdong Province from 2005 to 2018, and decompose the five driving factors, including population size, population distribution, economic development, industrial structure, and water consumption intensity. The results show ed that: the overall productive water consumption in Guangdong showed a downward trend from 2005 to 2018, and the reduction was more remarkable in the urban agglomeration of Pearl River Delt (PRD), overall, the productive water consumption efficiency of all industries improved with a significant difference among different regions;the proportion of the productive water consumption of three industries was found stable, and the water use structure in the PRD region was relatively balanced, and the water use structure in the east,west, and north of Guangdong tend to be unitary, with water used for the primary industry; economic development was the dominant positive driver leading to the increase of productive water consumption, water consumption intensity was found to be the main negative driving factor, while the industrial structure was the seondary negative factor, respect ively.The promotion effect of population size driver was not significant.Population distribution driver showed a slight promotion effect in PRD, while a slight inhibitory effect in the northern, eastern, and western Guangdong.The results of this research have a certain reference value for coordinating the relationship between re gional industrial development and w ater resources and formulating a reasonable w ater resource strategy and planning.
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[基金项目]
南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(广州)人才团队引进重大专项(GML2019ZD0403);中国博士后科学基金(2020M672537)