社会经济的发展影响着工业用水量，为揭示两者发展关系利用环境库兹涅茨曲线（environmental Kuznets curve，EKC）进行拟合并预测。以宁夏为例，利用1980—2013年工业用水数据，采用参数和移动平均回归拟合，判断工业用水环境库兹涅茨曲线形状；并采取对数平均迪氏指数法（logarithmic mean Divisia index，LMDI）将工业用水影响效应分解为用水效率效应、产业结构效应和经济规模效应，定量解析宁夏工业用水环境库兹涅茨曲线形成机制；最后采用灰色预测模型定量预测宁夏未来工业用水EKC曲线的发展，探究其今后可能演变趋势。结果表明:1980—2013年宁夏工业用水EKC曲线为先增后减再增的“N”形曲线；根据LMDI分解结果，1994—1997年以及2004—2013年经济规模扩大所增用水量大于用水效率和产业结构效应所减用水量，用水量呈上升趋势，1997—2004年，工业用水强度继续提高以及产业结构朝节水方向的调整，使得两者所减水量高于经济规模扩大所增水量，用水量持续下降并在2004年达最低值，曲线由此呈“N”形；通过实际值和预测发现，未来宁夏工业用水EKC曲线呈下降趋势，EKC曲线形状的发展存在“M”形的可能。综合对宁夏工业用水EKC曲线的分析，揭示其形成原因和发展趋势，对宁夏水资源高效合理利用以及未来工业节水具有重要意义。

Water resources are the basic guarantee of economic development.In the utilization of water resources,industrial water use is more closely related to the economy,and they influence and feedback each other.To reveal their development relationship,the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is used for fitting prediction.In the past,researches on the environmental Kuznets curve only focused on the relationship between pollutants and the economy,and there was little pieces of research on water use.However,researches on the industrial water EKC just focus on the discussion of its shape and qualitative analysis and lack quantitative research.Given the shortcomings of the research,Ningxia is selected as the research area,which is deficient in water resources,and has problems such as unreasonable supply and demand structure of industrial water,imperfect management system,low reuse rate,and low utilization rate of unconventional water resources. The Kuznets curve of the industrial water environment is determined by adopting parameters and moving average regression fitting.The central and central Kuznets curve formation mechanism of the industrial water environment in Ningxia is analyzed quantitatively by the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to decompose the industrial water use effect into the water use efficiency effect,the industrial structure effect,and the economic scale effect.Finally,the grey prediction model is used to quantitatively predict the development of industrial water EKC in Ningxia in the future,and explore its possible evolution trend in the future. （1）The industrial water consumption in Ningxia increased continuously from 1980 to 1997,with an average annual growth rate of 57%.Water consumption continued to decrease from 1997 to 2004,with an average annual reduction rate of 3.9%.The fluctuation increased from the late period to 2013.It is found that the fitting result of the cubic model is more reasonable than that of a quadratic model,and the fitting degree is higher.From the moving average,it can also be seen that the curve presents a positive N-type.In conclusion,the Kuznets curve of the industrial water environment in Ningxia presents a positive Ntype in the interval from 1980 to 2013.（2）Using LMDI,the influencing factors of industrial water use in Ningxia were decomposed into water use efficiency effect,industrial structure effect,and economic scale effect.Among them,from the perspective of industry,each effect value of the heavy industry is greater than that of the light industry,indicating that heavy industry occupies the dominant position in Ningxia.From the perspective of effect,the effect of water use efficiency has a restraining effect on the increase of water consumption,the effect of economic scale has a promoting effect on the increase of water consumption,but the effect of industrial structure is different.When the sum of the three effects is negative,the water consumption will be saved.Otherwise,the water consumption will increase.It can be concluded that water consumption increased from 1990 to 1997 and from 2004 to 2007,but decreased from 1997 to 2004,showing N-type.Simultaneously,it is found that the change of industrial water consumption in Ningxia is in line with the policies and measures of industrial reform and opening up.（3）According to the prediction results of the grey model and relevant policy guidance,the logarithm of industrial water consumption in Ningxia has a decreasing trend,while the logarithm of per capita industrial GDP has an increasing trend.According to the two predictions,the EKC of industrial water consumption in Ningxia will develop downward in the future. From the above research,it is found that there is a certain relationship between social and economic development and industrial water use.It is reasonable to use the environmental Kuznets curve to fit.Together,it can be seen that the EKC shape of industrial water use is different,which needs to be discussed according to different regions.According to the reason analysis of EKC of industrial water use in Ningxia,the efficiency of industrial water use in Ningxia continues to be flat,so it should be kept continuing to improve the level of industrial water saving,enhance the technical strength,strengthen the ability of water resources monitoring,and promote the development of industrial structure in the direction of optimization and rationality,to further improve the effectiveness of watersaving.It is predicted that the EKC of industrial water use in Ningxia may appear M-type in the future,which indicates whether the curve has periodicity with the change of social economy,that is,double inverted U-type,which has certain reference significance for the development of subsequent environmental Kuznets curve.The analysis of the EKC curve of industrial water use in Ningxia reveals its formation reason and development trend,which is also of great significance for efficient and rational utilization of water resources in Ningxia and industrial watersaving in the future.

国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFE0196000）;国家杰出青年科学基金（51625904）;广西研究生教育创新计划项目（YCBZ2018023）