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[摘要]

针对我国再生水开发利用现状，开展驱动约束影响因素分析，解析影响因素间的关联关系与层次结构,在此基础上，考虑影响因素的空间异质性，以胡焕庸线为分界线，对东西两侧地区分别建立再生水开发利用驱动约束非递归结构作用机制框架,采用结构方程模型（structural equation modeling,SEM）刻画影响因素间的传导路径，量化影响因素贡献率。结果表明：胡焕庸线东侧地区再生水开发利用驱动推进作用大于约束限制作用，具备高水平开发潜质；西侧地区约束限制作用大于驱动推进作用，再生水开发利用推动能力不足。再生水配套管网等工程条件不完善为东侧地区主导制约因子，影响程度贡献率为11.8%，地区经济条件与污水处理技术水平为次要制约因子；区域水资源环境胁迫、再生水工程设施建设不完善、地区经济发展水平偏低为西侧地区主导制约因子，贡献率为15.9%~18.1%，污水处理技术水平为次要制约因子。

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[Abstract]

Under the increasingly severe contradiction between supply and demand of water resources,pressure of water resources shortage has become an urgent problem in China. Hu Line was taken as as the dividing line for the spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors of reclaimed water development and utilization in east and west regions.The structural equation model (SEM) was used to construct the mechanism framework of the driving-constrained non-recursive structure,to describe the conduction path of the influencing factors,and to quantify the contribution degree of the influencing factors. The factor load of reclaimed water development and utilization on the east side of Hu Line was 0.79,which indicated that the interpretation level of the latent variable of driving factor on reclaimed water development and utilization could reach 62.4%.A load of a latent variable factor of constraint factor was 0.36,which indicated that its interpretation level was about 13.0%.The variance interpretation of the remaining 24.6% reclaimed water development was an estimation error that could not be fully explained.The latent variables of constraint factors were more affected by engineering conditions,economic conditions,and technical level.The load of factors was above 0.85,and the latent variables of constraint factors were less affected by the latent variables of the water resources environment.By analyzing the structural model between the latent variable of driving factor and the latent variable of supply-side,the demand side,and comparing the correlation intensity between latent variables,it was found that the latent variable of supply-side had a strong on the latent variable of a driving factor,and the interpretation level reached to 70.6%.At the same time,through the directional correlation analysis between the demand-side and the supply-side latent variable,it was found that the demand-side latent variable had a negative on the supply-side latent variable,which indicated that the demand-side latent variable had less influence on the supply-side latent variable.The latent variable factor load of driving factors in the west side of Hu Line was 0.61,which indicated that the interpretation level of reclaimed water development and utilization was 37.2%.;A load of a latent variable factor of constraint factor was 0.71,which indicated that its interpretation level was about 50.4%.The remaining 12.4% of reclaimed water development uses variance interpretation as the estimated residual which could not be fully explained.The factor load coefficient of the latent variable of the constraint factor on the latent variable of class II,and found that the latent variable of the constraint factor was greatly affected by the engineering condition,the economic condition,and the water resources environment constraint,and the latent variable of the technical level had a weak influence on the latent variable of the constraint factor. The development and utilization of reclaimed water in the east side of Hu Line was greater than the restriction and had high-level development potential.The contribution rate of supply-side latent variables to the development and utilization of reclaimed water was 63.6%,and the contribution rate of demand-side latent variables was only 6.2%,which objectively reflected that a strong supply capacity of reclaimed water in the eastern region,but the demand for reclaimed water was not strong.The imperfection of the engineering conditions such as the supporting pipe network of reclaimed water was the leading constraint factor in the eastern region,and the contribution rate of its influence degree was 11.8%.The regional economic conditions and the level of sewage treatment technology were the secondary constraints,and their contribution rate was less than 10%. The restriction of reclaimed water development and utilization in the west side of Hu Line was higher than that of driving propulsion,and the ability of development and utilization was insufficient.The supply-side latent variable had the greatest influence on the development and utilization of reclaimed water in the west area with contribution rate 36.4%.On the contrary,the influence degree of demand-side latent variable was only 6.1%.The overall driving effect was insufficient.Environmental stress of regional water resources,imperfect construction of reclaimed water engineering facilities,and low level of regional economic development had a great influence on the development and utilization of reclaimed water,which were the leading factor,and the contribution rates of the influence degree were between 15.9% and 18.1%.The technical level of sewage treatment was a secondary constraint factor,and the contribution rate was 7.2%.

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