Theory and methodology for water resources development carrying capacity risk monitoring and early warning system
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Abstract:
Multi-disciplinary and comprehensive water resources carrying capacity risk is a theoretical basis of water resources carrying risk identification,monitoring and early warning.It is not only a major scientific problem that must be solved for risk based water resources carrying management,but also prerequisite for fact management to risk management for water resources management. Water resources carrying capacity risk refers to the probability of water resources overload under various uncertain circumstances.Water resources carrying capacity risk monitoring and early warning need the support of water resources carrying capacity evaluation index system and methods.It needs to be reported according to the framework of risk evaluation.The constituent elements of risk are disaster-causing body and disaster-bearing body.The risk of water resources carrying is social and economic system.The vulnerability of water resources carrying risk mainly comes from the water resources system itself,including four dimensions of "quantity,quality,domain and flow",which refer to the amount of water resources allowed for economic and social consumption,the amount of pollutants allowed to be discharged into rivers and lakes,the surface water volume and groundwater level to maintain a certain water space,and the river ecological flow to maintain specific ecological functions.Water resources carrying risk monitoring and early warning is a threshold of water resources carrying risk category and level based on the evaluation results of water resources carrying capacity and state and the purpose is to build a multi-level early warning system from single index factor risk early warning to regional water resources carrying risk early warning,taking preventive measures and control the water resources pressure of economic and social development within the range of water resources system. A theoretical model coupling water resources carrying capacity state and risk monitoring and early warning level to point out the focus of water resources carrying risk monitoring and early warning and to determine the thresholds of different early warning degrees of four disaster causing factors in the theoretical model in combination with the process of regional socio-economic development.The indicator early warning method is used to design the alarm criteria and build a monitoring and early warning system framework composed of monitoring layer,early warning layer,decision-making layer and feedback regulation layer.The core task of the monitoring layer is to develop comprehensive,accurate and real-time water resources carrying information acquisition and processing technology,including information monitoring,data review and database construction.The early warning layer includes three levels:early warning method,early warning content and information release.To build a reasonable and effective early warning method for water resources carrying risk monitoring,including early warning model and alarm criteria.Both the decision-making layer and the feedback layer refer to the response of the water administrative department to the early warning information,and the decision-making layer focuses on the decision-making process of the water administrative department,which includes five levels:information exchange,expert evaluation,departmental consultation,decision-making and decision-making.The feedback layer focuses on the specific control of water resources carrying risk by the water administrative department,mainly including control measures and effect evaluation. Through the monitoring and warning system,information can be timely sent out,providing the regulation basis for decision-makers to reduce the risk of water resources carrying capacity and control social-economic water resources pressure within the acceptable range.Water resources carrying capacity risk is a new field of water resources carrying capacity.There are some differences in the connotation and characterization of water resources carrying capacity.So,there must be many scientific problems to be clarified in the monitoring and early warning of water resources carrying capacity risk.
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