根据滦河主要代表站沟台子、三道河子、滦县的1950年－2009年天然径流资料，运用滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall法及小波分析方法，分析了滦河天然径流演变规律。结果表明：滦流域1950年－2009年3个代表站的径流量均呈下降趋势；沟台子站在1960年发生一次径流减少突变，三道河子站在1967年发生一次径流减少突变，而1988年后滦县站呈现出较显著的突变，径流突变特性与变化环境下的极端气候事件有直接关系；滦河上游径流主要存在28年显著变化周期，中、下游径流分别存在27年和30年显著变化周期。

On the basis of the natural runoff data at the Goutaizi, Sandaohezi, and Luanxian stations in the Luanhe River Basin from 1950 to 2009, the long-term trend of runoff was analyzed using the moving average method, Mann-Kendall test method, and wavelet analysis method. The results showed that (1) the runoff at the three stations have a decreasing trend from 1950 to 2009; (2)a mutation of runoff reduction happened at the Goutaizi station in 1960, at the Sandaohezi station in 1967, and at the Luanxian station in 1988, which may be caused by the extreme weather events; and (3) a 28-year variation cycle existed in the upstream of Luanhe River, a 27-year variation cycle in the midstream of Luanhe River, and a 30-year variation cycle in the downstream of Luanhe River.

水利部公益性行业科研专项项目 （201101017）