对于有多个GPS监测点的滑坡，通常只研究个别代表性较强的点的位移，以此近似反映滑坡整体变形情况，但这种以点代面的方法与实际相差较大。本文现利用三峡库区某滑坡长期地表位移监测资料，根据各监测点位移对滑坡整体位移的贡献率，求得综合位移曲线，再利用小波分析等数学方法推导综合位移方程，据此分析了外界因素（降雨、库水位）对滑坡变形影响机理及周期。结果表明：该滑坡现处于潜在不稳定状态，降雨和库水位对滑坡的影响周期约为12个月。应用滑坡总位移方程进行验证性预测后显示，其预测精度达到92%，因此该方程能更真实地反映滑坡稳定性现状和发展趋势，对同类滑坡的研究具有借鉴价值。

For a landslide with multiple GPS monitoring locations, only the displacements at a few typical locations were investigated and used to represent the overall deformation of the landslide, which often induces different results with the actual conditions. In this paper, the surface displacement monitoring data of a landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area were adopted to obtain contribution rate of each monitoring displacement to the overall deformation, and then to determine the overall displacement curve. The mathematical method wavelet analysis was used to derive the overall displacement equation, and thus to analyze the influence mechanism and cycle of external factors (rainfall and water level) on the landslide deformation. The results showed that the landslide is potentially unstable at present, and the cycle of effects of rainfall and water level on the landslide deformation c is about 12 months. The prediction accuracy of displacement is about 92% using the overall displacement curve. This method can reflect the stability situation and development trend of landslide accurately and provide references for similar landslides.

湖北省自然科学基金(2012FFB03804)；地球空间环境与大地测量教育部重点实验室开放基金(11-01-04)；三峡大学研究生科研创新基金(2012CX017)