本文根据2001年—2010年《中国水资源公报》的水资源量与第二次水资源调查评价的45年系列成果，分析了中国近10年水资源的变化情况，认为：通过论证全国一级区的45年的天然径流量及其延长系列，表明45年系列成果仍具有一定的代表性；从全国水资源一级区上看，大部分区域偏枯，仅有淮河区和西北诸河区偏丰，地表水资源量的丰枯分布情况决定了水资源总量的丰枯分布；近10年，气候变化和人类活动使北方地区水资源情势进一步恶化，枯水时段进一步延长，北少南多的水资源分布格局进一步加剧。

Based on the comparative analysis of water resources quantities obtained from China Water Resource Bulletin between 2001 and 2010 and determined by the 45-year results of the second water resources investigation and evaluation, the variation of water resources quantity was analyzed in the last ten years of China. The results suggested that (1) the 45-year results are still representative according to the demonstration of the 45-year natural runoff and its extended results in the first-grade region of water resources; (2) as for the first-grade region of water resources, most area has less water except for Huaihe River Region and Northwestern River Region. The distribution of surface water resources determines the distribution of total water resources; and (3) in the last ten years, climate change and human activities worse the water resources situation in the north, resulting in an extended low flow period. The water resources distribution of less water in the north and much water in the south aggravates.

国家自然科学基金资助（51279006）