为了能够更好地进行中长期径流预报, 对1965 年- 2013 年的丹江口水库月平均入库流量进行径流特性分 析。首先采用线性回归法和Mann2Kendall 检验法进行趋势分析, 然后采用Pettitt 突变检验法、Mor let 小波法分别进 行突变分析与周期分析。结果表明, 1965 年- 2013 年间丹江口径流量呈下降趋势, 并且分别存在3~ 5 a、7~ 9 a、18~ 20 a 的显著周期性。建议进行中长期年径流预报时采用7 a 或其倍数年做建模数据序列, 同时由于年径流与最大 洪峰流量的突变点均为1986 年, 所以尽量避开1986 年, 以免影响预报精度。

In or der t o bet ter predict the lo ng2term runo ff, t he av erag e monthly inflow runoff in the Danjiangko u Reser vo ir from 1965 t o 2013 wer e analyzed. The trend analysis was perfo rmed using the linear r egr essio n and Mann2 Kendall test met ho ds, the mutation ana lysis w as per formed using the Pettitt mutatio n test method, and the cycle analy sis w as perfo rmed using the Mo rlet wav elet met ho d. The r esults show ed that the inflow r unof f in the Danjiangkou Reser vo ir has a decline t rend from 1965 to 2013, and signif icant periodicity of 3~ 5, 7~ 9, and 18~ 20 year s ex ists. T he mutatio n po int o f annual r unoff and max imum peak flow occur red in 1986; therefor e, the data of 1986 are bett er av oided in order to ensure the prediction accuracy in the lo ng2term annual runo ff predict ion. M oreo ver, the modeling data series o f 7 y ea rs or its multiple a re sug gested to be applied in the lo ng2term an2 nual r unoff predictio n.

水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目( 201101026; 201101024; 201301001; 20131102) ; 国家科技支撑计划( 2013BAB05B05) ; 环 保部公益基金项目( 2013467042) ; 国家重点基础研究发展计划( 973 课题) ( 2013CB036406 ) ; 国家科技重大专项项目 ( 2012ZX07205)