作为我国重要的粮食生产基地, 华北平原的最主要灌溉水源是地下水。但是, 从山前平原到滨海平原, 该区地 下水资源量差异巨大。为了揭示华北平原典型井灌区粮食生产地下水保障能力的差异, 以山前平原保定、中部平原 德州和滨海平原沧州地区井灌区为典型研究区, 建立了地下水保障能力评价指标体系, 并利用彭曼公式计算了粮食 作物灌溉需水量, 利用概率统计的方法分析了三个典型地区的地下水保障程度。研究结果表明: 保定地区的粮食生 产多年平均地下水保障能力为中等水平, 德州和沧州地区均处于极弱水平; 地下水保障程度随降水量增大呈直线增 大, 降水量每增加100 mm, 保定地区保障程度增加4. 9%, 德州地区增加1. 6%, 沧州地区增加0. 6%; 未来50 年 ( 2011 年- 2060 年) , 保定、德州和沧州地区的地下水保障程度均符合对数正态分布, 其中保定地区主概率对应中等 水平, 概率水平为0. 726, 德州和沧州地区主概率均对应极弱水平, 发生概率分别为0. 577 和1。

Nor th China Plain( NCP) is an important g rain product ion base in China, and gr oundwater is the main ir rigation w ater resource. However , g ro undwater r esource has significantly spatial var iation. In o rder to r eveal the spatial variatio n of g roundw a2 ter guarantee ex tent fo r g rain production in NCP, an evaluatio n index system o f g ro undwater g uarantee ex tent w as develo ped o n the basis of thr ee t ypical r egions including Baoding of pediment plain, Dezhou of central plain, and Cangzho u of coastal plain. The cr op w at er requirements in the three typical r egions w ere calculated using penman equatio n, and gr oundwat er g uarantee ex2 tents wer e analyzed using the statist ical evaluation method. T he results indicated that the annual av erag e g ro undwater g ua rantee ex tent for gr ain pr oductio n is the middle level in Baoding while the infer ior level in Dezhou and Cang zhou; g ro undwater guaran2 tee ex tent incr eases with t he increasing o f pr ecipitatio n, and it can increase by 4. 9% in Baoding , 1. 6% in Dezhou, and 0. 6% in Cangzhou wit h the increasing of 100 mm pr ecipitation; and g ro undwater g uar ant ee ext ents o f Baoding, Dezhou, and Cangzhou ar e in the log arithmic no rmal dist ribution in the future 50 year s( 2011 to 2060) , and the main pro bability o f Baoding co rresponds to the middle level w ith the pro babilit y of 0. 726 w hile the ma in pro bability of Dezhou and Cang zho u cor responds to the ex tr emely inferio r level w ith the probability o f 0. 577 and 1, r espectiv ely.

国家自然科学基金资助项目( 41172214) ; 中国地质调查局地质大调查项目( 1212011220941) ; 山西农业大学科技创新基金项目 (201306)