长距离输水管道工程因其复杂性而存在诸多风险, 由于失事后果的严重性, 通过实践获取各风险事件的发生 概率及事故造成的损失很不现实。鉴于评价指标的模糊性和关联性对评价结果的客观性影响很大, 通过引入模糊 相似理论和三角模糊数, 提出了模糊相似评价方法。以东北某长距离埋地输水管道供水工程为例, 对初步识别的风 险事件进行筛选, 并完成了对风险评价指标集的模糊相似评价。评价表明, 暴雪和山体滑坡、工程总体布局不尽合 理和流量调整频繁、设备失灵和监控系统失效、管理设施不完善和资金保障不到位、人为破坏和通信故障等五组指 标具有较高的相似度, 结果比较符合实际, 可剔除权重较小的相似指标, 新确立的风险指标体系能在一定程度上简 化风险综合评价的复杂度, 方法简便可行。

Vario us r isks ex ist in the long2distance w ater transmission pipeline pr oject because o f its complex it y. Because the acci2 dent is usually disastr ous, it is not r ealistic to obtain t he fr equency and induced loss of the r isk ev ent. Due to that the vag ueness and co rr elation o f r isk index es usually have sig nificant impacts on the risk assessment results, a fuzzy similarity evaluation meth2 o d w as pr oposed based o n the fuzzy sim ilar ity theo ry and tr iang ular fuzzy number, and it w as used to evaluate the risks for the long2distance w ater tr ansmissio n pipeline project lo cated in the nor theast of China. T he initially identified risk events w ere se2 lect ed, and the fuzzy similarit y evaluat ion method was applied to the r isk index system. T he results show ed that five g ro ups of index es hav e high similarit y, including heavy snow fall and landslide, irr ationality of the o ver all layout of the pro ject and fr equent flow adjust ment, equipment failure and breakdow n o f monito ring sy stem, incomplete management facilities, and inadequate fund guarantee. The r esult s w ere consistent with t he actual conditio ns and the indexes w ith lower weig hts can be eliminated. Co nse2 quently, the complex it y of com pr ehensive r isk assessment can be r educed using the new ly const ruct ed r isk index sy st em.