[关键词]
[摘要]
为研究在全球气温变暖条件下以马海盆地为代表的青藏高原北缘地区的气候变化特征, 运用累积距平法、 M ann2Kendall 检验法、 小波分析法对马海盆地的年降水量和年平均气温时间序列变化进行了多周期分析。研究表 明, 1970 年- 2010 年马海盆地年降水量基本处于稳定状态, 而年均气温有升高的趋势; 在 2001 年之前, 马海盆地降 水呈减少的趋势, 之后降水有增多的趋势, 而年均气温在 1995 年之前呈现下降的趋势, 之后开始回升; 这一地区降 水量变化震荡周期主要为 15 a、 30 a, 气温变化则以 26 a 为主周期; 研究区降水和气温在不同的时间尺度上经历了 不同的多2少及冷2暖的循环变化过程。对于不同的尺度周期, 同一时段的降水量、 气温变化会有所不同, 时间尺度 越小, 气温、 降水变化位相差异越小。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
In order to investigate the climate change in the M ahai Basin of the Qinghai 2T ibet Plateau under the conditions of glob2 al warming, the variations of annual precipitation and temperature data in the Mahai Basin were analyzed using the accumulative anomaly method, Mann2Kendall test, and wavelet analysis. T he results suggested that ( 1) annual precipitation is stable from 1970 to 2010 while annual temperature has an increasing trend; ( 2) annual precipitation has a decreasing trend before 2001 and increases after that, while annual temperature has a decreasing trend before 1995 and increases after that; ( 3) the primary oscil2 lation periods of annual precipitation are 15 and 30 years while the primary oscillation period of annual temperature is 26 years; and (4) annual precipitation has different dry 2wet cycles while annual temperature has different hot2cold cycles under different time scales. The variations of precipitation and temperature are different under different time scales, and the variations are lower when the time scale is smaller.
[中图分类号]
[基金项目]
国家科技支撑计划项目/ 柴达木循环经济区水资源保障与生态保护研究0( 2012BAC09B00)