利用时间序列模型, 以及趋势分析、 小波变换、 M2K 突变检验等统计学分析方法, 分析了威海站 1964 年- 2013年的平均气温、 平均最高气温和平均最低气温的年变化、 年平均气温的季节变化、 时频特点, 并对平均气温变 化进行了突变检验, 发现 1964 年- 2013年威海市年平均气温呈上升趋势, 气温倾向率为 0135 e /( 10a); 各季节气 温倾向率分别为 0 1 427 e /( 10a)、 0 1 268 e / (10a) 、 01241 e /( 10a) 和 0 1 287 e /( 10a), 其中春季( 0 1 427 e / ( 10a)) 增温对该市年平均气温变化的贡献最大; 春季气温呈现降- 升- 降- 升- 降的交替变化, 为四季气温变化最明显的 季节; 年平均气温突变发生在 1987年; 各个季节在发生突变后均升温趋势显著。

The time 2series model with the statistical methods, such as trend analysis, wavelet transforms, and Mann 2Kendall mu2 tation test, were used to analyze the annual variations of average, maximum, and minimum temperatures, seasonal variations and time 2frequency characteristics of annual average temperature, and to conduct mutation test of average temperatures in Weihai from 1964 to 2013. The results showed that ( 1) the annual average temperature in Weihai increased from 1964 to 2013 with an inclination rate of 0 1 35 e / ( 10a) ; ( 2) the inclination rates of seasonal temperature were 01427 e / ( 10a) , 0 1 268 e /( 10a) , 01241 e /(10a) , and 0 1 287 e / (10a), and the largest contribution to the average annual temperature in the area was spring; (3) spring temperature appeared the alternate variations with down2up 2down 2up2down trends, and spring was the season with the most significant variations; (4)the mutation of annual average temperature occurred in 1987; and (5) temperature in each season increased significantly after the mutation.

军队青年科技基金项目( SYFD1300808)