地下水的过量开采是引起天津市地面沉降的最主要原因。对天津市中心城区、塘沽区、汉沽区和大港区的1980年－2013年地下水开采量、地面沉降量进行数据统计分析，建立了各区域的累计地面沉降量和累计地下水开采量的线性相关关系模型，验证结果表明此相关性模型模拟累计地面沉降量时误差较小。根据实际情况，设计三种地下水开采方案，利用该模型对2014年－2020年各区域的地面沉降量进行了预测，发现方案3为最优地下水开采方案，较方案1年沉降量和累计沉降量降低比率分别为68.29%和5.47%，较方案2年沉降量和累计沉降量降低比率分别为65.65%和4.97%。在南水北调天津输水工程通水后，采用方案3将会大幅减缓天津市地面沉降速率，有效遏制地面沉降的发展。

The excessive exploitation of groundwater is the main cause of land subsidence in Tianjin. By analyzing the groundwater exploitation and land subsidence data from 1980 to 2013 of the central area of Tianjin, Tanggu, Hangu and Dagang District, the correlation model of the cumulative amount of land subsidence and groundwater exploitation was established. The results showed that the error was small when the model simulated the cumulative amount of land subsidence. On this basis, combined with the actual situation, 3 groundwater extraction plans were designed to forecast the regional land subsidence from 2014 to 2020. The results showed that the scheme 3 was the optimum groundwater exploitation scheme, the reduction ratios of the year settlement and cumulative settlement between scheme 3 and 1 were about 68.29% and 5.47%, and were 65.65% and 4.97 % between scheme 3 and 2. In addition, the rate of land subsidence would significantly reduce when the South to North Water Diversion Project was carried out.

水利部公益性行业科研专项经费（201301069）