利用精河水文站1964年－2012年径流、降雨数据，采用M-K检验、累积曲线模型及交叉小波分析等方法，对艾比湖流域精河的径流、降水的变化特征及多时间尺度相关进行分析，并定量分析了降水变化对径流变化的贡献率。精河年径流量总体上径流呈增长趋势，但趋势不明显；降雨总体上呈增加趋势，且增加趋势明显。精河年径流量与降水量在多时间尺度上存在显著相关关系，且以正相关关系为主，显著相关区域集中在1986年－1991年在2～4年的周期带、1985年－1990年的7年周期带、2002年－2011年的 4～5年周期带。分析认为，近50年来该流域降水变化对径流增加的贡献率平均为68.4%。

Based on the annual runoff and precipitation data of Jinghe Hydrological Station from 1964 to 2012 in Jinghe River，the paper studied the changing trend and multi-time scale correlation between the annual runoff and precipitation by using the methods of Mann-Kendall test, cross-wavelet test and double mass curve, and the effects of the precipitation change on runoff was also quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that runoff increased insignificantly and precipitation increased significantly, respectively. The multi time scale correlativity was significant between the annual runoff and precipitation in Jinghe River, which was dominated by positive correlation. The significantly correlated regions were the 2-4-year periods during 1986-1991, the 7-year periods during 1985-1990, and the 4-5-year periods during 2002-2011. The result of double mass analysis showed that the increases of runoff in JingheRiver was mainly attributed to precipitation change, and its contribution was 68.4%.

国家自然科学基金项目（41161029）；新疆干旱区湖泊环境与资源实验室基金（XJDX0909-2012-08）