新疆和田河流域环境脆弱, 径流极易受气候变化的影响。基于此, 通过对和田河典型站点 1980- 2013 年间的数据资料分析得出: 同古孜鲁克站年降水量总体呈现明显增加趋势, 增加率为 18mm/(10a) , 降水量发生两次突变, 1993 年突变发生以后年降水量呈现减少趋势, 2001 年发生第二次突变, 突变发生之后降水量呈增加趋势; 年平均气温呈 0.232℃/(10a) 的上升趋势, 2007 年出现最高气温, 最低气温出现在 2012 年; 年日照时数以倾向率为 21. 5 W/( m2·( 10a) ) 的速度趋势减少; 年径流量以23.5×107m3/(10a) 的速率在增加; 径流与前期气温的相关性强于降水。

The environment in Hetian river basin is fragile. The runoff is extremely vulnerable to climate changes. Through the analysis of data from 1980 to 2013, we found that the annual precipitation at Tong Gu Zi Lu Ke station showed a significant increasing trend at a rate of 18 mm/(10a) . The annual average temperature was increasing by 0.232℃/(10a). The highest temperature appeared in 2007; the lowest temperature appeared in 2012. The annual sunshine hours were decreasing at a rate of 21.5 W/( m2·( 10a) ). The annual runoff was increasing at a rate of 23.5×107m3/(10a) . The runoff had a stronger correlation with antecedent temper ature than precipitation.

国家自然科学基金( 51609064) ; 中央高校基本科研业务费项目( 2014B12214; 2014B05914)