根据南水北调东线典型受水区 1951- 2012 年降雨资料, 采用滑动平均法、Mann-Kendall 检验法、游程检验法、Spearman 秩次相关检验法及 Morlet 小波变换分析方法, 分析了江苏省沂南水利分区降雨演变趋势和周期变化特征。研究结果表明, 近 62 年来, 该区域降雨量呈不显著减少趋势, 并且呈现 27a 显著周期变化。研究结果对该地区应对防洪抗旱、农业生产以及南水北调东线可持续调水具有重要的指导意义。

On the basis of the rainfall data from 1951 to 2012, in this paper we analyzed the rainfall evolution trend in a typical water-receiving area of East Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project. We adopted four methods including the moving average method, Mann-Kendall test method, Run test method, and Spearman rank test. Meanwhile we used Morlet wavelet transform to analyze the periodic variation characteristics. The results showed that the rainfall in the region showed an insignificant decreasing trend from 1951 to 2012 and had a 27-year variation cycle. The results have important guiding significance for flood control, drought resisting , agricultural production, and sustainable water diversion for the East Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project.

江苏省水利科技重点项目( 2015002)