根据水资源安全内涵, 构建湖南省水资源安全评价指标体系, 采用水资源安全综合指数辨识 2007- 2015 年湖 南省水资源安全状态; 根据短板要素理论, 构建湖南省水资源安全评价体系多木桶模型, 采用均衡度指标度量各桶 片( 指标) 的长度差异, 将指标分为优势要素、限制性要素和短板要素, 辨识系统短板。从纵向( 年际) 和横向( 指标) 比较分析湖南省水资源安全现状与发展趋势。结果表明: ( 1) 湖南省水资源安全系统, 2011 年为较不安全状态, 2015 年为较安全状态, 其余年份为临界安全状态, 2007- 2015 年间湖南省水资源安全呈现前期形势较为严峻、后期 矛盾缓和的特点; ( 2) 绘制湖南省水资源安全短板要素图, 甄别出防洪治涝形势严峻、废水及有机污染物排放量较多 和工农业及生活用水量较大是当前影响湖南省水资源安全的主要短板要素。

First, based o n t he conno tatio n of wat er resources security , w e built an ev aluatio n index system fo r water resources se2 curity of H unan pro vince, and determined the w ater resources security state during 200722015 with the integr al index of w ater resources security. Seco nd, w e built a multi2bucket model fo r the evaluation system based on the short2bo ard facto rs theo ry , and measured the length difference betw een bucket staves ( indexes) w ith the "equilibrium degr ee" index . The index es w ere divided into dominant fact ors, restrictive facto rs, and short2board facto rs. Then w e compar ed and analyzed the st atus quo and develop2 ment trend of w at er resour ces security o f H unan pr ovince f rom lo ng itudinal ( interannual) and later al ( index2 based) perspec2 tives. T he r esults indicated: ( 1) The w ater r eso urces security sy stem o f H unan prov ince w as in a somewhat unsafe state in 2011, and w as in a somew hat safe st at e in 2015, and was in a critically safe state in the other years. The water r eso ur ces security of H unan pr ov ince during 200722015 was in a sev ere situation in the earlier stag e and it eased up in the later stag e. ( 2) We drew a sho rt2boar d factors diagr am of w ater reso ur ces security of H unan pr ov ince, and found that the main sho rt2boar d facto rs wer e sev ere floo d contro l situation, lar ge amo unts of w aste w ater and org anic pollutants emissio ns, and larg e consum ption of w ater for industria l, ag ricultural, and domestic use.

湖南省哲学社会科学规划基金( 14YBB004) ; 水沙科学与水灾害防治湖南省重点实验室开放基金( 2014S S08) ; 湖南省水利科技项 目( 湘水科计[ 2016] 1942 39)