洪水资源利用在产生效益的同时, 也会带来风险, 有必要加强洪水利用风险评价研究, 最大限度降低洪水资源 利用的负面影响。对调水工程洪水资源利用风险因素进行识别, 构建风险评价指标体系, 从蓄水工程、输水工程、提 水工程三个方面展开评价。采用层次分析法计算主观权重, 熵权法和投影寻踪法计算客观权重, 引入云模型计算风 险指标的隶属度, 最后得到洪水资源利用的风险等级。以南水北调东线工程江苏段为实例, 对丰、平、枯三种典型年 的洪水资源利用风险进行了评价, 验证了评价方法的有效性与适用性。

The ut ilizat ion of flood r eso ur ces w ill pro duce benefits, but it w ill also bring risks. Ther efo re, it is necessary to study the risk assessment of flo od utilization so as to minimize the neg ativ e effects o f f loo d resour ces ut ilizat ion. We identified the risk facto rs of floo d r eso ur ces utilizatio n in a w ater div ersion pro ject, and co nstr ucted an index sy st em fo r risk assessment based o n three aspects: w ater stor age pro jects, w ater conveyance pr ojects, and water pumping pro jects. The subjective weight was calcu2 lated by the analytic hier archy pr ocess, and the objective w eig ht w as calculated by t he ent ropy w eight method and the pr ojectio n pursuit method. T he cloud model was ado pted to calculat e the membership degr ee of the risk index . Then, the risk gr ade of flo od resources utilization can be obtained. The abo ve metho d was applied to the Jiangsu Prov ince segment of t he East Route of the So ut h2to2Nort h Water T ransfer Pr oject. The risks of floo d resour ces utilizatio n in w et, norma l, and dr y years wer e evaluat ed, and the validity and applicability of the evaluation metho d w ere v erified.

国家重点研发计划课题( 2016YFC0400909) ; 湖南省水利科技重点项目( 湘水科计[ 2016] 194221) ; 湖南省水利科技项目( [ 2015] 245213)