京津冀位于中国的“首都圈”，具有极其重要的战略地位，而水资源短缺已成为严重制约京津冀经济社会发展的因素之一。利用2000－2016年京津冀水资源利用与城市经济发展指标等数据，首先基于变异系数、锡尔系数对京津冀用水数量、用水结构与用水量效率进行时空分析；其次采用灰色关联法，探讨了水资源利用类型与城市经济发展指标之间的关联程度；在此基础上，利用二次回归模型分析了产业结构对农业、工业用水的影响，并且重点分析了城市经济发展与生活用水量之间的关系。结果表明：（1）京津冀地区受经济基础、发展条件等因素影响，各城市间用水类别空间差异较大，尤其是生活用水量与工业用水量空间不均衡度加剧，空间差异明显；（2）京津冀地区城市经济发展指标与水资源利用类型之间存在较高的关联度，产业结构对水资源利用量的关联度最大；北京市生活用水量受城市经济发展影响显著，天津市则为工业用水量，河北省为工业、农业用水量。（3）京津冀地区产业结构与各用水量之间存在较优的回归关系（＜0.01），其中北京市、天津市生活用水量增速最快，而水价的提升并未起到对该地区生活用水量的抑制与减少作用。

Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,located in the "capital circle" of China,has an extremely important strategic position.The shortage of water resources has become one of the factors that seriously restrict its economic and social developments.Based on the data of water resources utilization and urban economic development from 2000 to 2016,this study firstly investigated the spatiotemporal variations of quantity,structure and efficiency of water resources in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region with coefficient of variation and the Theil coefficient.Secondly,the grey correlation method was used to explore the correlation degree between the types of water resources utilization and the indicators of urban economic development.Thirdly,the quadratic regression model was adopted to analyze the impacts of industrial structure upon agricultural and industrial water,focusing on the relationship between urban economic development and domestic water consumption.The results showed that:(1)There was a large spatial difference in water use between the BeijingTianjin Hebei region,especially in the spatial imbalance between domestic water consumption and industrial water consumption,due to regional economic and development levels;(2) There was a high correlation between the index of urban economic development and the types of water resources utilization in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,and the industrial structure had the greatest correlation with water resources utilization.Beijing′s domestic water consumption was significantly affected by urban economic development,while Tianjin′s was by the industrial water consumption,and Hebei was by the industrial and agricultural water consumption;(3) There was a better regression relationship between industrial structure and water consumption in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region (p<0.01),among which Beijing and Tianjin had the fastest growth rate of domestic water consumption,while the increase of water price has not played a role in restraining and reducing domestic water consumption in this region.

国家重点研发计划（2016YFC0401402）