为探索蓄滞洪区土地利用方式的优化调整方向，以淮河蒙洼蓄洪区为例，将遥感解译与实地调研相结合，运用土地利用动态度和转移矩阵，评价了土地利用方式在2000-2014年间的时空变化过程。通过构建“居民点减少”、“农田减少”和“协同作用”3类24个子情景，运用CLUES模型，预测并模拟了不同情景下土地利用的数量及空间分布。结果表明，蓄滞洪区土地利用方式受工程措施和政策因素影响显著；林地、水塘、农田和居民点4种地类之间，存在空间分布的竞争性行为：在上游和中游湖心庄台居民点附近，林地的优先级高于水塘，在下游堤防和河渠附近，水塘的优先级最高，此种分布特征可起到径流削减、涵养水源的作用。

The temporal and spatial distributions of land use/land cover change situations in Mengwa,Huaihe River from 2000 to 2014 were investigated based on land use dynamic index and transition matrix.Three scenarios (24 sub-scenarios),"Immigration" "Agriculture land reduction" and "Combined actions",were developed and simulated by CLUE-S model to predict future land use pattern under different policies and restrictions.The optimization and simulation results indicated that land use pattern in flood detention basins were greatly influenced by engineering works and policies.Among four kinds of land use patterns as forest,pond,agricultural land and residential areas,spatial distribution competition existed:the priority of forest was higher than pond,in the periphery of residential areas of upper and middle reaches,while pond was the highest in the surrounding areas of lower embankment and rivers,.The predicted and optimized land use patterns would have advantages in flood reduction,water resources conservation and ecological functions.

中国水科院2017年国际水利水电科技发展动态调研专项（JZ0145C022017）;国家自然科学青年基金（41601569）