基于MODFLOW模型，以华北平原人民胜利渠灌区为例，结合研究区水文地质条件，建立地下水运动数值模拟模型，通过参数校准和模型验证，表明建立的地下水运动模型能够合理地反映研究区2012－2013年的地下水运动状况，模拟结果表明该灌区地下水处于负均衡状态。基于模拟结果，进一步预测了气候情景（选取RCP4 5情景NorESM1 M模式）下灌区2030年地下水水位情况。结果表明与1997－2013年相比，2030年灌区地下水位持续下降，漏斗面积逐渐扩大。以此为基础，开展地下水开采量情景分析，将开采量分别增加和减少20%，预测2030年在不同开采量情景下地下水水位变化情况。最后根据预测结果初步提出地下水开采量减少20%的调控方案，以保证地下水水位有所上升，漏斗面积减少。

The MODFLOW model was used to simulate groundwater flow in a typical irrigation area,Peoples' Victory Canal Irrigation District,in North China Plain,based on the hydrogeological conditions of the study area.The model parameters were well calibrated and model verification results showed that the simulation results could reasonably reflect the groundwater dynamics in the study area from 2012 to 2013.Under agricultural groundwater exploitation and climate conditions during 2012-2013 period,groundwater balance was in a negative equilibrium state.The spatial distribution of groundwater flow in 2030 under the future climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 scenario NorESM1 M model) was further predicted.The results showed that the groundwater level would continue to decline from 2013 to 2030,and the low groundwater level funnel area was gradually expanding.The spatial distribution of groundwater flow in 2030 was further expllored under different groundwater exploitation scenarios,i.e.,the exploitation quantity increased and decreased by 20%,respectively.According to the forecast results,a 20% reduction in groundwater exploitation was projected to ensure that the groundwater level could be raised and the funnel area could be reduced.However,an increase in exploitation would lead to an obvious increase in the groundwater funnel area.

国家自然科学基金（51609084）；河南省科技创新青年项目（144100510014）;水利部948项目（201328）