为了研究泥石流内物源活动性演化及冲出范围，利用搜集的四期遥感影像和DEM，结合GIS与RS，对不同时期张家坪泥石流物源做出详细解译，得出不同活动率条件下的张家坪泥石流物源演化趋势。根据变化趋势预测该泥石流未来不会产生较多新的物源，但老崩滑体有扩大的可能性，同时利用FLO2D软件模拟三种降雨频率下的张家坪泥石流冲出范围及堵江程度，研究结果能够为张家坪泥石流物源防治措施提供参考价值，同时为冲出范围内的灾后重建工作提供科学指导依据。

The detailed descriptions of the Zhangjiaping debris-flow source at different periods and its evolution process under different activity rates were investigated in this study with four remote sensing images,DEM,and GIS and RS techniques.It is predicted that the debris-flow will not generate more new sources in the future,but the existing collapses has a possibility of expansion.FLO-2D software was also used to simulate the flushing ranges and the degree of river blocking under three rainfall frequencies for the Zhangjiaping debrisflow.The research results can provide reference for the source prevention and control measures at Zhangjiaping debris-flow,and provide scientific guidance for post disaster reconstruction within the runout zone.

四川省国土资源厅九寨沟地震灾区生态化地质灾害防治重大科技支撑研究课题（KJ 2018-24）；国家自然科学基金(41702312)；四川省科技厅重点研发项目(18ZDYF3431)；四川省科技厅重大科技专项(19ZDYF0257)