基于莺落峡站径流资料，结合流域内气象因子及土地利用类型的变化情况，采用Budyko假设下的张橹经验公式，定性和定量分析了不同因素对黑河流域上游径流变化的影响。结果表明：（1）1960-2015年研究区径流量显著增加，在1997年和2004年存在变点，据此将研究期划分为基准期（1960-1997年）、突变期I（1998-2004年）、突变期II（2005-2015年）；（2）降水、潜在蒸散发与永久性冰川雪地面积三者的变化与径流变化在一定程度上呈现一致性；降水和永久性冰川雪地融化对径流增加产生正效应，潜在蒸散发对径流增加产生负效应；（3）突变期I时段三者变化对径流变化的贡献率分别为149 %、-83 %和34 %；突变期II时段三者的贡献率分别为138 %、-35%和-3 %。

Based on the hydrological and meteorological data and land types in the upper reaches of Heihe River basin,variations and attribution of runoff over the study area were investigated using several statistical methods and Zhang Lu's empirical formula under Budyko framework.The results showed that:(1) The runoff increased significantly from 1960 to 2015 and changed abruptly in 1997 and 2004.The study period was divided into three stages:the base period of 1960-1997,the abrupt change period I of 1998-2004,and the abrupt change period II of 2005-2015;(2) The changes of precipitation,potential evapotranspiration and permanent glacial snow area were consistent with the changes of runoff to a certain extent.The increase of precipitation and the decrease of permanent glacial snow area had positive effects on runoff generation,while the increase of potential evapotranspiration had negative effects on runoff generation;(3) The contribution rates of precipitation,potential evapotranspiration and other factors (mainly the permanent glacial snowmelt) to runoff changes during abrupt change period I were 149%,-83% and 34%,respectively;and decreased to 138%、-35% and -3%,respectively,during abrupt change period II.

中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（35832015028）；中国地质大学（北京）发展基金（F05037）