俄寨村滑坡是岷江上游、成兰铁路沿线众多大型古（老）滑坡之一，研究其成因机理与稳定性预测，对于地质灾害早期识别、减轻危害具有重要意义。在阐明滑坡地质背景条件、发育特征的基础上，对其成因机理、演化过程做了分析，采用工程地质分析、定量计算和数值模拟方法对滑坡堆积体稳定性及变形破坏机制做了研究。结果表明，俄寨村滑坡总方量739万m3，为大型岩质滑坡，属降雨诱发型推移式老滑坡，滑坡变形破坏经历变形拉裂、裂缝贯通、推移滑动和停滞堆积四个阶段；俄寨村滑坡的形成与高陡的地形条件、破碎的岩土类型、顺向斜坡结构，以及紧邻活动断裂，地震活动强烈有关，受降雨诱发；俄寨村滑坡目前整体稳定，局部不稳定，暴雨或地震条件下可能局部失稳。

The Ezhai Village landslide is one of the large landslides along the upper of the Minjiang River and the Chengdu Lanzhou railway.It is very important for early identifying the geohazards and reducing the harm to explore the causes and stability prediction.On the basis of expounding the geological background and development characteristics of the landslide,this study analyzes its genetic mechanism and evolution process,and investigates the mechanism of landslide accumulation stability and deformation damage by engineering geological analysis,quantitative calculation and numerical simulation.The results show that the Ezhai Village landslide is a large rock landslide with 739×10 4 m 3 volume,and an old push down landslide induced by rainfall.It has been through four stages:deformation and crack by tension,crack penetration,push down and stagnation accumulation.The formation of the landslide is related to the steep terrain condition,the type of broken rock and soil,and the type of slope structure.It is also closely related to the active fault and the strong earthquake,induced by rainfall.The Ezhai Village landslide is stable now as a whole but is not stable at local scale,which implies that it may be unstable in some areas under heavy rainfall or earthquake conditions.

中国地质调查局地质调查项目（DD20160271；1212011220132）