近年来在气候变化和人类活动共同影响下，海河流域径流出现了较为严重的减少趋势。为厘清气候变化和人类活动对不同类型流域径流变化的影响，分别以海河流域中受人类活动影响较为显著的漳河上游流域和受人类活动不显著的滦河上游流域作为研究对象，基于近60年的实测径流资料，验证了SWAT模型在海河典型流域的适用性；构建了基于SWAT模型的径流变化归因分析模型，分析了两种不同类型流域径流变化特点和两种影响因素的各自贡献率，进而系统分析并对比了不同驱动因素下两流域径流变化的差异特征。结果表明：近60年来两流域的径流均呈现下降的趋势，漳河上游以人类活动为主导因素，其贡献率为65%；滦河上游则以气候变化为主导因素，其贡献率为89%。相较于滦河上游流域，受人类活动影响显著的漳河上游流域流量值分布更为离散、下降更为明显，且对平水年和枯水年的影响更为显著。

In recent years,under the combined influence of climate change and human activities,the runoff in the Haihe River Basin showed a serious decreasing trend.In order to clarify the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff changes in different types of watersheds,Two typical catchments was selected in this study:one was the upper reaches of the Zhanghe River,which was significantly affected by human activities in the Haihe River Basin;the other was the upper reaches of the Luanhe River,which was not significantly affected by human activities.Based on the observed runoff data of nearly 60 years,the applicability of the SWAT model in the typical watersheds of Haihe River was verified.The runoff variation attribution was investigated,and the characteristics of runoff variation and the contribution rate of two influencing factors in two different types of watersheds were analyzed.The differences of runoff variation in the two basins under different driving factors were investigated and compared.The results showed that the runoff in both basins had declined in the past 60 years.The upper reach of the Zhanghe River was dominated by human activities with a contribution rate of 65%.The upper reach of the Luanhe River was dominated by climate change with a contribution rate of 89%.Compared with the upper reaches of the Luanhe River,the runoff in the upper reach of the Zhanghe,which was significantly affected by human activities,was more scattered and its trend was more significant,as well as a more departure in the normal and the dry year.

国家自然科学基金（51679145;91747103）