为了给洪泽湖及整个淮河下游地区的防汛抗旱决策提供技术支持，基于API模型和三水源新安江模型，采用各区分单元、入湖分单元分区间的方法，考虑水利工程以及大洪水期蓄滞洪区的应用情况，进行降雨径流预报与洪水过程研究。选取洪泽湖以上2000－2018年实测数据，对蚌埠控制区、蚌埠以下淮北控制区、蚌埠以下淮南控制区进行场次洪水模拟；基于水量平衡法，以反推入湖流量作为实测入流，各区采用马斯京根法预报洪水，构建入湖洪水预报方案。结果表明：各区两种模型模拟效果比较接近，均取得较好的预报精度，且对于流域内大洪水的模拟效果更理想。在涨洪段，分单元分区间的API模型和新安江模型在大洪水期均能有效的预报入湖洪水，模拟精度相当；在退水段且预报时段较长时，分单元分区间的新安江模型模拟精度高于API模型，并且模拟的洪水过程与反推入流过程更接近。

In order to provide technical support for flood control and drought relief decision-making in the Hongze Lake and the the lower reaches of Huaihe River,a simulation model is needed.The API model and Xin′anjiang model by a unit-block method dividing units for sub-catchments and unit-block for lake-inflow were used in this study.The rainfall runoff and flood hydrograph were produce based on the current situation of hydro-projects and flood retarding areas in the river basin.The mode parameters were calibrated with observation from 2000 to 2018 at sub-catchments of Bengbu,the north and south areas of the Huaihe River basin above Hongze Lake. Lake-inflow which was calculated by water balance method was regarded as the measured inflow into the Hongze Lake.The Muskingum method was used in flood confluence process of sub-catchments,and flood forecasting model into Lake was built.The results showed that the two models performed well for sub-catchments in terms of rainfall runoff simulation,especially for flood events.At rising limb,the prediction results of both models were of high accuracy.At falling limb and a long forecast periods,the prediction accuracy of the Xin′anjiang model was higher than that of the API model,and the simulated flood process was closer to the reversed deduction of lake-inflow.

国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0402705)；国家自然科学基金(51679061；41130639)