针对南水北调中线干渠存在的藻类增殖风险问题，基于氮磷等营养物质及藻类孢子的大气沉降为汇入源的前提假设，采用沃伦韦德尔模型以及河南、山东、京津冀地区氮沉降平均值及全国磷沉降平均值，对中线干渠全线的营养物质累积趋势进行了估算。结果表明，渠水到达监测点三里屯后，渠水中的营养物质累积浓度会超过富营养化阈值；综合考虑大气中藻类孢子沉降的影响，结合藻类增殖的Monod模型，对文献报道的中线藻类数量空间分布数值进行了拟合，估算出中线干渠藻类生长速率在0.21~0.46个/d范围内波动，取得了相对中值误差为23.71%的估测结果；并在此基础上，提出了可提高预测结果精确度的监测方案。

Addressing the algal proliferation risk in the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project,the trend of the accumulation of nutrients is estimated for the entire Middle Route by applying the Vollenweider model and assuming nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients and the atmospheric deposition of algae spores as the source of sinking and averaging nitrogen deposition in Henan,Shandong and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions and phosphorus deposition of the whole country.The results show that the cumulative concentration of nutrients in the canal exceeds the eutrophication threshold at Sanlitun monitoring point and beyond.Taking into account the effects of algae spore settlement in the atmosphere,the [JP]reported spatial distribution of algae is fitted by coupling with the Monod model.In the main canal of the Middle Route,algae grow at the rate of 0.21/d~0.46/d,with the relative median error of 23.71%.Based on the results achieved,a monitoring scheme is proposed to improve the accuracy of algal bloom forecasting.

国家自然科学基金面上项目(51779066);水污染事件预警及应急处置技术与示范(2012ZX07205-005)