含跨区域调水的多水源水库群系统调度决策中需协调保障供水效益与降低供水成本的多目标矛盾, 在综合考虑本地水资源与外调水资源供水相对成本差异的基础上, 根据引调水成本的相对高低提出供水成本递增的多情景分层优化模型, 以降低系统总缺水率为优化目标、限定外调水量为约束条件, 分情景求解多水源联合供水方案并分析目标间矛盾关系。以南水北调东线受水区江苏段及洪泽湖、骆马湖为研究对象的水资源系统调度为应用实例, 计算结果表明: ( 1) 两湖的本地水资源能满足平水及以上年型的用户用水需求; ( 2) 当洪泽湖遭遇偏平及以上量级来水, 且相对骆马湖来水丰沛时, 启用洪泽湖向骆马湖调水可降低公共用户及骆马湖周边用户缺水量; ( 3) 在现行协议供水量条件下, 引调江水可解决洪泽湖、骆马湖枯水年型组合下的缺水问题; ( 4) 多年平均条件下, 引调 0. 6 倍协议引江水量是均衡考虑降低系统缺水及引江水成本的折中方案。模型可为跨区域调水系统中多种水资源工程水量联合调度决策提供决策参考。

Policymakers should balance the cost and profit contradiction of water supply when made decisions reg arding simulation and optimization o f multi-reservoir operation in an inter-basin water transfer system. Considering obvious differences between the cost of local and diverted water, we established an optimization and multi-scenario model for water resources management based on cost of water-supply sources. In this paper , we analyzed the conditions and harmony of multi-water resources through the above model with minimum water supply shortage as an objective function, restricted diverted water as a constraint condition. In this study, Hongze Lake, Luoma Lake and the east route of So uth-to-North Water Diversion Project was selected as resea rch object. The results indicated that: ( 1) local water from Hong ze Lake and Luoma Lake can meet the water demand in normal and high flow years. ( 2) we could reduce the water short ages of HongZe Lake and comunity by diver ting water from Hongze Lake to Luo ma Lake, while the inflow of Hong ze Lake was normal or high and inflow of the Luoma Lake was high. ( 3) The water shortage problem in low flow year could be solved through an effective agreed amount of annual diverted water from Yangtze River ( 4) under the multi-year av erage condition, 0. 6 times of the agreed diversion volume was a compromise scheme which can balance the consideration of reducing the w ater shortage and diversion cost of the system. Through the above research, we can get some references for optimization operation in an inter-basin water transfer system.

“十三五”国家重点研发计划 ( 2017YFC0405604 ) ; 国家自然科学基金( 51609062 ) ; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2018 B10514)