随着我国粮食生产重心的北移, 西北地区在全国粮食安全中的作用日益凸显, 然而该地区水资源缺乏, 水土资 源时空匹配性差对当地的生态安全、粮食安全和水安全构成了巨大威胁。近些年, 伴随着城市化和区域贸易的快速 发展, 西北地区农作物产量和外运量均快速增长, 大量的农作物虚拟水伴随贸易输送到全国各地, 进一步加剧了西 北地区的水资源压力, 严重制约当地的可持续发展。基于此, 本研究对 2000- 2015 年西北地区主要农作物生产水 足迹和伴随着农产品贸易的虚拟水流动格局进行了量化分析, 在此基础上评估了西北地区农产品贸易输出引发的 水资源压力。结果表明, 研究期内 2000- 2015 年西北地区主要农作物生产水足迹呈上升趋势, 从 2000 年的 4171 16 亿 m3 增长到 2015 年的 4391 87 亿 m3。与此同时, 农产品贸易伴生的虚拟水流动量显著增加, 从 2000 年的 220 亿 m3 增长到 2015 年的 2721 99 亿 m3 , 严重加剧了当地的水资源压力。陕西、内蒙古、新疆和甘肃水资源压力均高于 全国平均水平, 陕西更是呈重度水资源压力状态。因此, 本文从技术发展和宏观战略层面提出了创新农业实体水资 源利用效率、建立虚拟水补偿机制以及合理优化调整区域产业结构的应对策略与建议, 为保障我国西北地区水资源 可持续利用提供了科学参考。

With the shift of Chinac s foo d pro duction centr e to the no rth, Northw est China pla ys an prominent ro le in the na2 tional foo d security . H ow ever, the la ck o f w ater reso urces and the po o r spatia l and tem po r al compatibility of w ate r and so il reso urces pose a hug e thr eat to the lo cal eco lo g ical security, foo d security , and w ater security in this r egion. In r ecent y ears, gr ain pr oductio n and t ransport v o lume in Northw est China has been increasing ra pidly due to pr om pt dev elo pm ent o f ur bani2 zation and r egional tr ade. A larg e am ount o f cr op v irtual w at er has been t ransported to all o ver the co unt ry alo ng w ith t he gr ain tr ade, w hich has furt her exa cer bated the pressure on w ater r eso urces and seriously restricts t he sustainable develop2 m ent in northw est r egion o f China. Based o n abov e scena rio , th is study co nducted a quantitativ e analysis of w a ter fo o tprint and v irtual w ater flow pattern accom pa nied by ag ricultur al pro ductc s t rade in No rt hw est China from 2000 to 2015 . Besides, the wa ter r eso urce pressur e caused by ag ricultural pr o ductc s t rade in Northw est China w as also assessed. T he results show s that during the study perio d fr om 2000 t o 2015 , the w ater foo tprint of m ajo r cr ops in No rthw est China a ppear ed in an up2 w a rd trend, fr om 411 716 billio n m 3 in 2 000 to 431 98 7 billio n m3 in 201 5. M or eov er, the v irtual w ater flow associated w ith agricultural pro ductc s tra de signif icantly incr eased, w hich w a s betw een 22 billion m 3 ( 2 000) to 27. 29 billion m3 ( 20 15) , w ith an incr eased rate o f 24% . Consequent ly , lo cal w ate r r esour ce pr essure w as sev ere. T he w ater reso urce pr essur e of Shaanx i, Inner M ong o lia , Xinjiang and Gansu w as hig her than t he natio nal aver ag e w ater r esour ce pressure, w hile Shaanx i w as in a state o f sev er e w a ter reso ur ce str ess. The refo re, this paper pro posed co ping strateg ies and sug g estio ns on techno2 log ical developm ent fo r innov ativ e ag ricultura l entity w ater reso urces utilizatio n efficiency , and rationally optimizing and ad2 just ing reg io nal industrial str ucture, to pr ovide scientific r eference fo r ensuring sustainable utilizatio n o f w ater r eso ur ces in No rthw est China.

国家重点研发计划( 2018YFF0215702) ; 中国工程院咨询研究项目( 20162ZD208) ; 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调 控国家重点实验室开放研究基金( IWH R2SKL2201601)