近50年来，气候变化和人类活动在不同程度上对澡河流域水文过程产生了影响，为了识别径流变化的主要原因，以深河流域上游地区为研究区，利用Mann-Kendall检验法等分析研究区1966-2015年气象及水文要素变化趋势，同时建立基于Budyko假设的水热耦合平衡方程。运用弹性系数法对研究区径流变化的影响因素进行敏感性分析，并对各要素对径流变化的贡献进行定量评估。结果表明，1966-2015年间谍河流域上游地区年径流深呈显著减少趋势，年降水与年潜在蒸散发均元显著变化趋势。 同基准期(1966-1979年）相比，下垫面变化是径流减少的主要影响因素，1980-1997年（影响I期）与1998-2015年（影响E期〉下垫面变化对径流变化的贡献率分别为 52. 68%、88. 12%。 在气候要素中，降水对径流变化的影响大于潜在蒸散发的影响。

In the past 50 years, evidence showed that climate change and human activities have affected the hydrological processes in the Luan River Basin. In order to identify the main causes for runoff changes, the upper reaches of the Luan River Basin are taken as the research area, and the Mann-Kendall test method is used to analyze the trend of meteorological and hydrological factors from 1966 to 2015 in the study area. Simultaneously,the hydrothermal coupling equilibrium equation based on the Budy ko hypothesis is established. The elastic coefficient method is used to calculate the sensitivity coefficient of the influencing factors to runoff change. Furthem1ore, a quantitative contribution assessment of each factor to runoff change is also carried out in the study area The results show that the annual runoff decreased significantly from 1966 to 2015, and there is no significant change in annual precipitation and annual evapotranspiration in the upper reaches of the Luan River Basin. Compared with the base period (1966-1979), the change of the underlying surface is the main influencing factor of runoff reduction. The contribution rate of underlying surface change to runoff change in 198C-1997 (phase I) and 1998 2015 (phase II) is 52. 68% and 88.12%, respectively. Among the climatic factors, the impact of precipitation on runoff changes is more significant compare to potential evapotranspiration.

中央高校基本科研业务费专项资合项目（2017XTCX02)