以引调水工程中倒虹吸管身失稳险情为研究对象，从自然、工程、人为及管理这四大因素出发,考虑其各风险 因子间复杂、动态的关系，建立了基于系统动力学的风险分析反馈模型,分析影响倒虹吸工程稳定的因子的重要性 程度,并釆用层次分析法所得结果对构建的反馈模型进行验证，结果表明该模型具有良好的精度和一定的适用性, 为将来引调水工程风险评估工作提供了一条新的途径。

Taking the risk instability of inverted siphon in the water diversion project as the research objective, considering the complex and dynamic relationship between the four factors such as nature, engineering,man-made and management, a risk analysis feedback model based on system dynamics was established. The importance of factor which may affect the stability of the inverted siphon project was analyzed. The results of the analytic hierarchy process were used to validate the feedback model. The results showed that the model had good accuracy and applicability, which may provide a new way for risk assessment of water diversion projects in the future.

国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0405006)