在生态优先、绿色发展前提下, 提出生态需水差分整合移动平均自回归预测模型( autor egressive integrated moving average model, ARIMA) , 据此在生态需水确权的基础上进行流域预留水权确权, 并在水权确权的基础上 探索水权期权交易模式下预留发展水权再配置方案, 实现跨流域水资源优化配置的同时规避水权买卖双方风险, 为跨流域特殊水权的确权与再配置提供参考。研究表明: 受气候、政策的影响区域生态需水量呈现出较大变化; 南水北调中线受水区天津和河北不具备自备预留发展水量的能力, 需要依靠流域调度中心的统一协调; 流域调度中心可以根据预测年预留发展水量的使用风险情况进行价格方案的灵活配置, 实现预留发展水量经济与社会效益的最优化。

The Auto regressive Integrated Moving Average Model( ARIMA ) prediction model of ecological water demand is proposed on the premise of ecological priority and green development . Based on this model, the reserved water rights confirmation model using ecological water rights is developed. Depended on the confirmed reserved water rights, the feasibility in the recon figuration of reserved developmental water rights under the options trading model is explored. The model can avoid the risks between water buyers and water sellers, meanwhile, it can achieve optimal allocation of water resources across river basins. It provides a reference for the determination and reconfiguration of special water rights across river basins. The results show ed that: the ecological water demand has changed greatly due to climate change and policy, Tianjin and Hebei do not have the capacity of reserved water for development, which needs to rely on the unified coordination of the basin scheduling center. and the basin scheduling center can do flexible price configuration based on the possible use of reserved development water in the forecast year, which can optimize the economic and social benefits.

国家社科基金重大项目( 17ZDA064)