依据袁河流域水系分布结合乡镇与水系等特点划分计算单元, 从考虑工程与不考虑工程两方面分析袁河流域水资源供需平衡的时空变化, 重点分析流域重要城镇所在单元的水资源供需平衡, 以提高流域水资源规划管理工作的实用性。结果表明: 不考虑工程的特枯年( 95% 来水频率) 流域水资源无法满足需水, 2025 年缺水率 6.7% , 2035 年缺水率 7.7% ; 考虑工程的特枯年流域缺水更加严重, 2025 年缺水率 16.6% , 2035 年缺水率 17.5% 。流域严重缺 水城镇主要集中在干流沿岸, 其中, 芦溪镇、袁州区市区、分宜镇、渝水区市区等 4 个重要城镇是流域内缺水严重地区, 年内水资源供需平衡的时间差异化明显。

According to the distribution of water system in Yuanhe River Basin, the water supply and demand with or without consideration of eng ineering capacity is analyzed, which are divided based on the characteristics of town and sub-basin. The analysis displays the spatial and temporal variations of the water supply and demand to support water resources management, particularly in the major towns. The r esult shows that: the w ater demands can no t be met under the 95% fr equency, with the sho rtag e rate of 61 7% in 2025 and 71 7% in 2035, furthermor e, considering eng ineering capacity under the 95% fr equency, the sho rtag e rates of the basin incr ease to 16. 6% in 2025 and 17.5% in 2035. The areas of water shortage are mainly focused on the mainstream of Yuanhe River Basin, particularly in Lux i, Yuanzhou, Fenyi, and Yushui, with significant differences in characteristics in a year.

江西水利科技支撑项目( 201821ZDKT07; KT 201707; KT201704) ; 江西省重点研发计划项目( 20181ACG70018)