洪涝灾害是松花江流域的主要自然灾害之一, 尤其是嫩江、松花江( 以下称为两江) 交汇处时常出现洪水遭遇 而造成的大洪水现象。以两江洪水在三岔河口附近的遭遇现象作为工程背景, 基于两江历史洪水资料分别采用统 计学方法及 Copula 函数 2 种方法从定性和定量的角度综合分析两江洪水的洪峰遭遇及洪水过程遭遇情况, 为提高 两江的防洪能力提供有力帮助。通过研究发现: 两江洪水以小量级洪水遭遇居多, 且遭遇发生在 8 月 7 日左右的概率最大; 通过计算还得到两江在同频率洪水下每日的遭遇风险以及遭遇概率最大时两江在不同频率洪水组合下的遭遇概率。采用 2 种方法所得的遭遇规律相同, 结论可信。洪水遭遇可通过上游水量调节等方式予以避免。

Flood disaster is one of the major natural disasters in Songhua River Basin. In particular, the confluence of Nenjiang River and Songhua River( hereinafter referred as the two rivers) encounter often causes flood. The encounter phenomenon of two rivers flood is taken as the engineering background. Based on historical flood data of the two rivers, two methods of statistics and Copula function are respectively adopted to qualitatively analyze the flood peak encounter and flood process encounter of the two rivers, and quantitatively obtain the encounter risks of the two rivers indifferent time periods and flood combinations of different magnitudes, in o rder to make the Songhua River Basin, especially the two river junctions and its flood control safety in downstream areas provides a valuable reference. The results of the two methods are the same, and the conclusion is credible. Flood encounter can be avoided by upstream water regulation.

国家重点研发计划( 2017YFC0406005)